Are Spurs really in trouble?
Ehh, yes! And, ehh no.
They are 2 places and 4 points above the drop zone, that's definitely "in trouble"!
Arguably it's 5 points as their GD is 15 better than WH's and 10 better than Forest's. With ten games to go I would much rather be in Spurs position than Forest or WH's, but that's not to say Spurs position would be comfortable.
Spurs have 29 pts from 28 games, as near as makes no difference, a point a game. Roll that on over the last 10 games and you end up with 39 pts. The theory always is 40 points is enough, but in the last few years it has been a lot less. Often as low as 34. So, if they keep going like they have all season they SHOULD be ok. To add a bit more detail to that, for WH to catch them the would need to get 14 pts (15 if we allow for the GD difference). That's five wins. From 10 games. That's a big ask, especially as they have won six of their previous 28. Again, you would assume Spurs are safe enough there. But, **** gets weird at the end of the season. We all remember WBA pulling a miracle out of the hat, ditto Everton way back when, or Leicester the year before they won it. Teams can and do go on great runs when the pressure is on. They also choke and implode. Even if WH do go on a great run and match the 39/40 pts Spurs are on course for that won't send Spurs down unless Forest also close a 2 pt gap. That is a lot more feasible. It literally just takes 1 **** VAR or refereeing decision or someone to have a worldy/nightmare and turn the game. Think Robert Sanchez against Arsenal last weekend.
Can I see WH AND Forest closing the gap o Spurs, hhhhmmmm. Not sure I can. But, I would be sitting very uncomfortably if I was a Spurs fan/player.
I had a quick look at the remaining fixtures and doesn't seem to be a huge amount in it. I think WH have more of the "big" sides to play but there isn't a big difference. It's tricky at this time of the season as you can't really look at the fixtures and go "City/Arsenal/Pool/Chelsea (A) they'll lose that," or "Wolves (H) they'll win that" as form goes out the window. Ok, I would expect City and Arsenal to win any game against the bottom 6 right now, yes Arsenal drew with Wolves but in the run in, my money would be on the top 2. Pool, Chelsea and Utd have been so inconsistent (ie *****) this season you don't know WTF to expect. They could duff a bottom 6 side or play like the part time headless chickens they are and lose. Add to that the fact teams down at the bottom know what is at stake and sometime you get weird results, Wolves and Arsenal again. Also, the top sides sometimes have European distractions (not Utd, lol). Thus a game between the two legs of a CL quarter or semi can be a lot easier against one of those sides as they rest players.
By the same token teams at the bottom are scrapping for their lives, so what on paper would look like 3 points, Arsenal at Wolves again, sometimes is a lot harder than you would expect.
Really in a run in you wnat games against sides with nothing to play for. Given the PL will get 5 CL spots this year, bar a disaster, and City/Arsenal are in the Fizzy cup final, there are 2 extra european spots on offer via the league. Plus Villa/Forest and Palace could all secure European footy by winning their respective European competitions. you're really looking for games against mid to lower mid table sides who are already on the beach and phoning in the performances. Or a CL side who have a two legged knock out game either side of your match.
It may come down to games between the sides down there. Spurs vs Forest (22nd March), WH vs Wolves (11th April ), Forest vs Burnley (18th April), Wolves vs Spurs (25th April), Spurs vs Leeds (9th May), WH vs Leeds (24th May). A win in any of those games is a double boost, 3pts and one less 'winnable' game for the sides round you.
Are Spurs in trouble? yeah, for me they are. I suspect they will stay up as much because there are worse sides than because of anything they do on the pitch, but I wouldn't be hugely surprised if they went down either.