Are prices going up?

[ScruffyLookingNH]

As an analogy, for a long time we were wine drinkers only knowing about variants of red and white wine. But as our tastes have matured, we have discovered Shiraz, Merlot and even to the depth of Shiraz from Australia, Shiraz from California etc and will speak of their subtle differences to all that will listen.

Great analogy!

 

[jedisearcher]

I see it as comparing it to the 'stock market' or 'property prices'?. They go up and down. Some so called financial experts say we can forever gain value and profit year on year but this is simply not true! Nothing can be a forever increasing diagonal line on a profiteering graph chart. If you think the prices are too high, wait.. they will come down. Simple economics, supply & demand.

Sorry but it is true, the stock market is exactly like the SW market. Google it, the footsie after inflation is at 3 and a half times its value since 1984. Yes, there have been peaks and troughs but the overall trend is constantly upwards. SW has probably gone up by more, but people have been expecting a crash since forever, when the best they'll get is a natural correction,, followed by more growth. There are tons more collectors these days adding a lot of demand otherwise prices wouldn't be rising much at all.

It's interesting how the FB groups have gone recently, there was a crazy rush to complete loose collections, many have done that now and variants and ROTJ MOCs are the new flavour of the month. As people go through those collections something will become the new next big thing. Some of those collectors may go away or sell up but it's hard to see such a massive drop off that'll mean stuff becomes cheap again. Rare will always be rare.

 

[subzero]

True, I think prices in almost everything follows the stock markets, in good times people obviously have more money and spend more, then in bad times people have less and don't spend as much and then even the people who do have money are more cautious with it. And it's people's 'perceptions' of a good or bad economy that partly affects collectables prices.

I don't know much about the history of vintage SW market fluctuations ( accept that it's mostly held it's value over time and increased ) but i'm guessing during a bad economic crash & recession that would be the best time to buy?.. it would be a great opportunity as a collector to get what you need cheaper.

 

[Awl Skulkerkey]

True, I think prices in almost everything follows the stock markets, in good times people obviously have more money and spend more, then in bad times people have less and don't spend as much and then even the people who do have money are more cautious with it. And it's people's 'perceptions' of a good or bad economy that partly affects collectables prices.

I don't know much about the history of vintage SW market fluctuations ( accept that it's mostly held it's value over time and increased ) but i'm guessing during a bad economic crash & recession that would be the best time to buy?.. it would be a great opportunity as a collector to get what you need cheaper.

Yes that's what I was meaning. If people go through bad times (financially) there will always be opportunities out there to buy items if not cheaper at least at a fair price. Everyones different of coarse, some will hold on to their goodies no matter what but items will always come onto the market in the future. Granted it is getting harder than it used to be but we still have hope eh!?

 

[subzero]

True, I think prices in almost everything follows the stock markets, in good times people obviously have more money and spend more, then in bad times people have less and don't spend as much and then even the people who do have money are more cautious with it. And it's people's 'perceptions' of a good or bad economy that partly affects collectables prices.

I don't know much about the history of vintage SW market fluctuations ( accept that it's mostly held it's value over time and increased ) but i'm guessing during a bad economic crash & recession that would be the best time to buy?.. it would be a great opportunity as a collector to get what you need cheaper.

Yes that's what I was meaning. If people go through bad times (financially) there will always be opportunities out there to buy items if not cheaper at least at a fair price. Everyones different of coarse, some will hold on to their goodies no matter what but items will always come onto the market in the future. Granted it is getting harder than it used to be but we still have hope eh!?

That's where I would be at, I would never sell any of my toys even in bad times unless I reaaally had to, i'm talking if I was about to die from starvation lol, so they would be the last thing I ever sell. But like you say there will always be people selling them, and after the next economic crash that's where I come in :twisted:

 

[jared007]

Trends are interesting. I made the cut to give a panel at Star Wars Celebration in London last year "Navigating a Bull Market for the Vintage Star Wars Collector". I was able to construct a graph to show market activity over the last couple of years. Here's an example slide charting the rising costs for a set of loose first 12 figures. Note the plateaus after the various new price rises, very few pullbacks. But then once the market/community had accepted this it seemed to jump yet again:

But to give a balanced view over the longer term, I had a go at piecing together prices taken from guides between 1984-2005. Below is the story for the 12 inch figure line which shows at the long-view level things really can pull back dramatically and may not hold their worth!

That graph above is the best reminder to collect because you enjoy, not for investment reasons.

 

[subzero]

Nice informative graphs, perception is a funny thing, it's true what you say people get used to a certain price and accept it, and then it can become the norm. Yes if anyone collects toys purely for investment then they'll most likely be very disappointed when the time comes to sell. I knew someone who did that with a ton of MIB Matchbox cars they had a huge box crammed with them up in the loft in the late 80's and now I think they still sell for the same amount lmao :lol:

 

[Awl Skulkerkey]

But to give a balanced view over the longer term, I had a go at piecing together prices taken from guides between 1984-2005. Below is the story for the 12 inch figure line which shows at the long-view level things really can pull back dramatically and may not hold their worth!

Slide29.JPG

That graph above is the best reminder to collect because you enjoy, not for investment reasons.

Loving the graphs. Don't forget the 12 inch figure line was notoriously less popular than the 3/4 inch line leading it to be discontinued after ESB's IG88 I think? This could historically be true and could even now be the case in terms of popularity. (Maybe it's a lack of space thing) :lol:
Personally I used to love them and still do! Got a few in the attic gathering dust. With any collection there will be some items more desirable than others with fluctuations what with trends/fashion/new films/actors passing.

 

[jared007]

Loving the graphs. Don't forget the 12 inch figure line was notoriously less popular than the 3/4 inch line leading it to be discontinued after ESB's IG88 I think?

That's how it played out commercially for kenner, but the 12 inch line was the first to be recognized as "collectable" and coveted by collectors in the late 80's early 90's. They were the hottest thing for a collector for a while in the kenner toy range, but then lost their appeal and today can be picked up comparatively very cheaply.

Complete loose figures rival the cost of 12 inch examples today. That would have been considered lunacy a couple of decades ago!

 

[Awl Skulkerkey]

The trouble I've always found with the 12 inch series was the amount of accessories and getting a complete figure has always been difficult! There always seems to be 'missing accessory A' which is a bummer because the item always displays well in the beautiful box but you know it's incomplete? Unless you want to cheat and buy a dare I say it.. REPRO ACCESSORY - aargh was my mouth out :lol: Never done this and never will

 

[Awl Skulkerkey]

I have a theory related to the above and other items. Think (Falcon/Rebel Transporter/At-At). I've always been surprised at how reasonable these prices have remained over the years. These never seem to skyrocket to silly prices? They are all large items, could this be the related reason like the 12 inch figures? Space is always an issue with collections - just ask my wife!

 

[subzero]

I have a theory related to the above and other items. Think (Falcon/Rebel Transporter/At-At). I've always been surprised at how reasonable these prices have remained over the years. These never seem to skyrocket to silly prices? They are all large items, could this be the related reason like the 12 inch figures? Space is always an issue with collections - just ask my wife!

I think it could be a combination of space issues and the fact that small figures are more 'cuter' looking and attractive to hold & display, plus a lot more kids had lots of figures back then rather than having large vehicles/ships, the vehicles were expensive just for one toy where on the other hand an adult could spend the same amount of money on a good few figures so their kids have 'more' to play with, so then I think most people have more nostalgia for the figures over ships & vehicles?

At least this is what I witnessed as a kid anyway.

 

[Awl Skulkerkey]

Agreed. I watched a link from this forum which was a documentary in one of those American hypermarket places back in 1979 I think? It was talking about the new movie coming out (Empire). The reporter was asking customers, children & parents, why and which toys they prefered? The main reason which was repeated again and again was the playability and cheaper cost. Children could do more play acting scenarios with 3/4 inch figures and the parents didn't have to break their budget to fund it all! Larger items (ships/playsets) were given more as Birthday/Christmas presents

 

[subzero]

Ah yeah I watched that too, seeing that woman talking about why she buys the figures was like listening to my mom talking lol. She's said the exact same thing on several occasions, the figures characters were really interesting and varied for the money and knew we all loved playing with them. Between me and my brothers we only ever had an AT-AT, AT-ST and a Falcon throughout our entire childhoods but had about 50+ different figures, all my mates only ever had no more than 1 large ship/vehicle too but tons of figures, that's true too I think we got the large toys for xmas's

 

[jared007]

For my experience, the ships/vehicles etc are comparatively great value these days. Back when I first collected in the mid 90's all this stuff was really quite expensive. But you can pick all of it up without breaking the bank now. I have had most of these "extras" at some point, but quite happy to pass it on as well. They just don't have the long lasting appeal for me.

The only ones that have really held their worth are the big 3: A-Wing, POTF Skiff and Radio controlled Sandcrawler. But that's only held their worth, they haven't climbed in face value since the 90's as you might have expected.

For me today, it's all about space and it's the loose figures that allow me to pack as much into the smallest area possible.

 

[tobedesu]

A complete bit unboxed Max Rebo Band just closed for £125.
I was in the hunt for a set at the start of the year but held off. In that time that's about an increase of £50 give or take.
Bugger.

 

[subzero]

I went to bid on a complete & loose Luke Stormtrooper figure last week expecting to place a £150 bid MAX on it, it went for over £260 I think lol