When will the bubble burst...?

[Rebel_Runner]

Can these crazy increases in the price of vintage items continue any longer? And when will the bubbly burst?

I can see a number of "collectors" (I use that term rather loosely as they are more like investors) being hit hard when it goes pop as I can't help think people are paying way over the odds for certain items?

I'm not so concerned about stuff sold on here as most of it is always well priced. But some of the prices being paid on EBay and Vectis is just insane!

 

[plantman]

facebook is the primary cause, huge amounts of people now "into" collecting paying huge premiums to gather stuff fast, then they get bored and try to sell and make money.

This acceleration is the worst ive seen since i started, the whole "mail call" and look how much ive spent just to get people's responses of "wow" are funny.

Facebook has always been bad for curtain twitchers and attention seekers, and its the same with the newbies, dont get me wrong some will stay around and improve their knowledge but a lot ore panick buying.

 

[lejackal]

Unfortunately the 'collectors' dropping massive money are unlikely to suddenly drop the stuff back into the market for significantly less than they paid for it. There are still bargains to be had and if you are patient, not chasing bloody AFA numbers and willing to compromise a little on condition there is no reason you can't get great items.

 

[Darth Bobby]

I was thinking about this last night, it's great that Stat Wars is everywhere again. I enjoyed the new film and look forward to episode 8 and 9, but I can't see the hype being sustained for the other films. By the time the young Han Solo films come out people will have moved on. Everything about those films sound bad, the actors who were reportedly in the running look pretty dodgy. The vintage stuff is hot because the Hamill etc are in the news and people are loving the nostalgia. Maybe I'm wrong and Rogue 1 will be bigger than Avatar but I doubt it. Plus like everything how many people have silly money to spend? There has to be a point where the bubble bursts?!

 

[lejackal]

facebook is the primary cause, huge amounts of people now "into" collecting paying huge premiums to gather stuff fast, then they get bored and try to sell and make money.

This acceleration is the worst ive seen since i started, the whole "mail call" and look how much ive spent just to get people's responses of "wow" are funny.

Facebook has always been bad for curtain twitchers and attention seekers, and its the same with the newbies, dont get me wrong some will stay around and improve their knowledge but a lot ore panick buying.

There was a guy on FB around Christmas who simply posted a list of wants and said "cash to burn" then a few weeks later limelighted about a grands worth and said that was his months purchases "so far". Don't get me wrong, he's a nice guy and I sold to him prior to that, at a very fair price I should point out, but I think that is an example of the I must have x, y and z and I must have it right now culture.

 

[edd_jedi]

There was a guy on FB around Christmas who simply posted a list of wants and said "cash to burn" then a few weeks later limelighted about a grands worth and said that was his months purchases "so far". Don't get me wrong, he's a nice guy and I sold to him prior to that, at a very fair price I should point out, but I think that is an example of the I must have x, y and z and I must have it right now culture.

Yep spot on, that describes 90% of the Facebook collectors, who are responsible for pushing the prices up. Don't get me wrong we were all new and keen to the hobby once, you get the odd one on here, but Facebook is overflowing with them. I ignore most of the groups now because of the same stupid questions being asked over and over, and equally stupid and often wrong replies (my main gripe is all the "experts" that call any Palitoy MOC a Toy Toni.) Again there's nothing wrong with people being inexperienced, but 30 seconds on Google or here would have answered their questions. Facebook has made everyone lazy.

As for prices, who knows? If anybody knew for sure they could get very rich. It's basically gambling if you're only collecting for monetary gain.

 

[edd_jedi]

and I present to you exhibit A. No doubt this guy bought both of these in a mad panic a few days ago, realised he overpaid and now wants to fleece some even less experienced idiot. The circle of morons...

I sold a nicer Leia than that for a fiver on here a few weeks ago :roll:

 

[lejackal]

and I present to you exhibit A. No doubt this guy bought both of these in a mad panic a few days ago, realised he overpaid and now wants to fleece some even less experienced idiot. The circle of morons...



I sold a nicer Leia than that for a fiver on here a few weeks ago :roll:

And I got a Luke FB from Poncho that's not much worse for a fiver a couple of days ago

 

[Joe]

It's hard to accept isn't it? The £25 beaters that would previously be ridiculed are now being bought and traded..sometimes even flipped..

I try my very best not to look at the groups for this very reason. I'm too opinionated not to say something rude and it really makes me feel like I'm from a different era of collecting (like most of us on here). The other thing is that sadly nobody wants to listen to an "oldie" either..so it falls on deaf ears or turns into drama.

With that said, eBay can still be your friend for bargains/fairer prices..not to mention the honest traders on here too. Stick with who you trust when buying, people that aren't only involved in the hobby to make a huge profit.

I think collecting is a lot easier when it's just collecting, meaning that if collector a wants something from collector b it's because he genuinely wants it and isn't going to buy it low to sell it high. I know I'm far more inclined to sell to someone who is going to keep an item and appreciate it than flip it.

 

[Cymonguk]

I think if you are worried about the bubble bursting, you probably are not a collector as mentioned. It is more likely you are investing if you worry about value, I personally want a collection my daughters will love, i dont want to overpay, but some figures I want more so will pay for.

BTW if people want to sell cheap to me I'd be happy

 

[lejackal]

Some of us new collectors listen to you "oldies" Joe........although I think you're a little younger than me :? :lol:

 

[SublevelStudios]

Personally, I think prices will continue to rise given Disney's future plans - Star Wars will remain very much in the limelight for the next few years at least. That means new collectors looking to hoover up whatever they can. Loose figure prices make my jaw drop ATM, some figures that six months ago you could pick up for £30-50 are now £150-200 plus... :shock:

 

[Joe]

Some of us new collectors listen to you "oldies" Joe........although I think you're a little younger than me :lol:

:lol:

Well, there are definitely a few exceptions, yourself included! I very much agree with your post above actually:

There are still bargains to be had and if you are patient, not chasing bloody AFA numbers and willing to compromise a little on condition there is no reason you can't get great items.

This is such an important message to get through to people who might be new to Vintage, can't stress this enough.

 

[itfciain]

I have a feeling that those waiting for the 'bubble to burst' might be waiting a very long time. Although I agree that there are people who have come in to the hobby seeing it as an investment, I think they are far outnumbered by those that start collecting for the nostalgia and these guys will just keep on coming as the new films come out and the hype continues

The main issue has been highlighted above - if you are new to the hobby and see people paying 25GBP for a beater Luke then you think that is the norm - you then pay 25GBP for your Luke and when it is time to upgrade then you want to get that 25GBP back. You will then put that 25GBP towards the 75GBP? that it now costs to find a complete minty one - and then the seller of that puts it towards the 600GBP? it costs to buy a carded one

While there are still plenty of people coming into the hobby (and I can't see a reason for them to stop coming right now) then this cycle will be repeated.

In addition as all these people move on from their 25GBP beaters then the items that are harder to find (like carded Luke FBs) will only keep going up in price - is it simple supply and demand - at the moment there is a huge amount of demand and only minimal supply (which is steadily decreasing as well with items being stored away)

For me the key is patience - this hobby can still be enjoyable - it is more than just buying 'things' as quickly as you can

 

[Rebel_Runner]

Personally, I think prices will continue to rise given Disney's future plans - Star Wars will remain very much in the limelight for the next few years at least. That means new collectors looking to hoover up whatever they can. Loose figure prices make my jaw drop ATM, some figures that six months ago you could pick up for £30-50 are now £150-200 plus... :shock:

Just like the tri logo Fett I've seen go for £250! Breath taking.

 

[BlueDog]

Personally, I think prices will continue to rise given Disney's future plans - Star Wars will remain very much in the limelight for the next few years at least. That means new collectors looking to hoover up whatever they can. Loose figure prices make my jaw drop ATM, some figures that six months ago you could pick up for £30-50 are now £150-200 plus... :shock:

Just like the tri logo Fett I've seen go for £250! Breath taking.

What about the U90 Fett that just sold for £1137 :? :evil:

I've also recently seen two mailer stands sell for £170 and £195 each, I bought my first one of these only 3yrs ago for $20.

I keep thinking it can't hold up and then it gets worse, it will eventually ease off but the prices will remain at a level far greater than a few years ago.

 

[Ross_Barr]

I tend to agree with Iain that the bubble likely isn't going to burst anytime soon or ever. I think we are seeing some leveling off with stuff like AFA graded 12 backs that were going for crazy prices six months ago. Interesting to hear how high some beater and mint loose figures are going for, and I guess that's a product of the fact that that is where most new collectors get their start - collecting loose figures - and is probably the one thing that all collectors old and new alike collect - the common denominator if you will.

At the end of the day, if you purchase stuff with extra money that your family doesn't need, I don't think it should matter greatly if the bubble bursts at all. And for those that are frustrated with rising prices, I get it. I get frustrated too sometimes. But that's the reality of the current situation. The good news is that there is so much to collect out there for everyone within every type of budget.

 

[fuzzybuzzytoys]

Personally, I think prices will continue to rise given Disney's future plans - Star Wars will remain very much in the limelight for the next few years at least. That means new collectors looking to hoover up whatever they can. Loose figure prices make my jaw drop ATM, some figures that six months ago you could pick up for £30-50 are now £150-200 plus... :shock:

Just like the tri logo Fett I've seen go for £250! Breath taking.

Yeah, I was bidding on that and thought I was out of control when I dropped £125 on him. Christ on a bike!

 

[jedisearcher]

When I restarted collecting about 3 years ago I remember there was loads of talk about a price bubble and how it must burst soon. In those three years all I've really seen is prices go up, maybe worse during last year for things like high quality graded 12 backs etc., but this year the price of loosies and beaters has increased no end as well (bit like a housing bubble, London goes up first, rest of the country follows along later).

Like Iain said, dwindling supply, much increased demand, Disney effect, the whole lot is a pretty toxic mix.

I think the best way to view things is stick with what you're comfortable paying for stuff and really enjoy the bargains if/when you tag one.

 

[indianawars]

I enjoy what I have and not what I don't have. Yes, the prices are beyond stupidity now, but I can assure you that there are still bargains to be had!
I know it's being in the place at the right time (and spending longer looking for the deals). I found a pristine Hammerhead ROTJ MOC for a whooping £40 :shock: And to be honest, I enjoy finding the real deals in an over priced market because for me it's a real buzz when I do find them.

And if I'm being totally honest, I'm putting a UKG 85% boxed Snowspeeder on eBay tonight for a 7 day auction starting at 99p because I know there are people prepared to spend more than a months wages on it. But by selling it means I can go off and keep finding those bargains without burning a hole in my pocket.

I think it's a double edge sword - As a seller, it's great because your getting more than you hoped for - But as a buyer it's a nightmare trying to complete something on a budget.