When will the bubble burst...?

[x-pack]

Well my entire collection cost me about 50p so long may it continue


...It would be nice to be able to afford to collect today though

 

[maxf]

I think we need to recategorise what is 'rare' and once the market does that, the bubble on certain items could deflate. I could certainly see Palitoy SW cards dropping to the level of good Kenner cards as the supply of them is massively higher than prices suggest - we are still in the mindset that a Luke is rare (number like 15 or 20 known were thrown around years ago, but this is nonsense now - there must be a hundred or even more).

In contrast to this, I think mocs which were otherwise overlooked, might continue to rise as they are recategorised as 'rare' - toltoys Jedi cards, meccanos, the rarer harberts etc.

I type this as someone who had bought a load of figures this year, so would certainly be affected by any bubble bursting - although as Ross suggested, only with money which is 'fun' money, so I wouldn't be overly sad... afterall, I could buy more going forward.

 

[Joe]

I'm surprised people think the supply is drying up? Vectis are practically shitting out 12 back palitoys & trilogos every few months as well as main character ROTJ figures! Loose figures are pricey but they are still absolutely everywhere - and if AFA is your thing you can venture into any FB group and spend your life savings in a heartbeat! I don't think prices are nuts because it's all suddenly become hard to find, it's just that high prices have become the norm because there are so many more people out there ready and waiting to buy things (not to mention all the wannabe dealers taking full advantage of things).

These days the only market I follow avidly is the Trilogo one and as sad as it sounds, I rarely miss a sale. I'm not shitting you when I say that with the exception of a handful of figures that haven't shown up as frequently as they have in previous years (Luke Hoth, Luke Bespin, ERG) I can quite honestly say I've seen more Trilogos in the last 2 years or so than ever before..seriously! I'd notice if things were drying up..

I totally admit that when I see some of the prices of loose figures it either makes me laugh or vomit..but I still see a **** tonne of loose figures out there and people talking about building two/three sets (for investment :roll: ) with some of them completing those sets in mere months quite easily..

TBH I reached a saturation point for production stuff a while back. I've seen so much surface over the last few years that it's hard to even get excited about things these days, it's literally everywhere. Years ago certain items seem genuinely hard to find but these days you only have to login to facebook to see some huge haul, bulk purchase or insane limelight of stuff. I still enjoy looking at pictures like that but in the back of my head I'm just tallying things up like this:

 

[itfciain]

Joe - I am not saying supply is drying up - but I am saying it is being outstripped by demand

I knew that there would finally be an opportunity to use my A-Level Economics! - Basically supply can increase but if demand increases at a greater rate then prices will still go up. So there may well be more cards coming onto the market but if more people want to buy those cards then the prices will still keep going up

Mrs Madden would be proud of me :lol:

 

[Joe]

I based my reply above on these comments:

at the moment there is a huge amount of demand and only minimal supply (which is steadily decreasing as well with items being stored away)

Like Iain said, dwindling supply, much increased demand, Disney effect, the whole lot is a pretty toxic mix.

I totally agree that the demand for this stuff is higher than ever but it would be false to say that the supply is lower than ever or minimal. If anything, supply is still able to meet demand meaning that if you want something, anything..you can literally just go out and get it, right now..even Poch's if you've got enough money! :lol:

The day supply truly dries up will be when you want a carded figure for your collection and have £400 burning a hole in your pocket yet still can't even find a Palitoy Klaatu to spend it on

 

[jedisearcher]

What I meant by dwindling supply is a bit different to that Joe.

I 100% agree that supply isn't dwindling on paper, as in there are still broadly the same total amounts of MOC's or loosies out there (barring rep finds/loft finds etc. and esp. for Trilogo's and some Palitoys I agree that supply has gone up alot), but we collect to collect and keep. When I buy something it goes on a shelf and stays there (mostly forever as I struggle to convince myself to sell anything!) and that's the same for most collectors. Even with all the Vectis stuff, you still don't see many Palitoys on ebay - looking today there are only about half a dozen 12 backs, and yet Vectis have sold a couple of hundred probably. So where've they all gone? Onto collectors shelves, to probably not come out for a long time.

So those items that we all buy are mostly removed from the available supply. I don't think the new items being uncovered or otherwise being recycled through collections is matching demand from new collectors. In fact I'm sure of it, because if it was, prices would be falling.

Why couldn't they do this type of stuff in A-Level Economics - it would've been interesting then :lol:

 

[itfciain]

Joe I agree that nothing is impossible - you could throw a million pounds at this hobby and probably get exactly what you want

But.. in terms of supply - it is 'minimal' because there is only a finite number of these items and there will never (legitimately) in increase the number available (as they have already been made)

A point that I think should be considered as well is that I don't think these items are moving around as much - even when I gt back into the hobby 6-7 years ago people would build up a run and then sell it - so the same pieces went round and round in collections - I don't think that is the case so much anymore

 

[bosk70]

Can't wait to hit the boot sales this year and see the affect the new hype has made, as mentioned before I picked up a mint chewy in a box of rubbish last summer for 20p, real mint condition, are those days over now that. that mum may have seen the new film and now think she is wise and ask £20

 

[Joe]

What I meant by dwindling supply is a bit different to that Joe.

I 100% agree that supply isn't dwindling on paper, as in there are still broadly the same total amounts of MOC's or loosies out there (barring rep finds/loft finds etc. and esp. for Trilogo's and some Palitoys I agree that supply has gone up alot), but we collect to collect and keep. When I buy something it goes on a shelf and stays there (mostly forever as I struggle to convince myself to sell anything!) and that's the same for most collectors. Even with all the Vectis stuff, you still don't see many Palitoys on ebay - looking today there are only about half a dozen 12 backs, and yet Vectis have sold a couple of hundred probably. So where've they all gone? Onto collectors shelves, to probably not come out for a long time.

So those items that we all buy are mostly removed from the available supply. I don't think the new items being uncovered or otherwise being recycled through collections is matching demand from new collectors. In fact I'm sure of it, because if it was, prices would be falling.

Why couldn't they do this type of stuff in A-Level Economics - it would've been interesting then :lol:

I think I would have been an A* student if school had been all about Star Wars toys..teachers take note!! :lol:

That's a fair reply and to some extent I do agree. I don't think that toys in a cabinet or on a shelf in a collection should really be considered off the market or anything though. If anything they are in the perfect place to be re-distributed within the community to other collectors once the time comes and the current owner changes focus or sells up.

While it isn't fun to see someone "retire" from collecting, the community definitely benefits when it happens.

On a related note (and it might be unfair of me to say this as I don't know each of them personally or the reasons they collect) I honestly don't think many of the vectis/fb buyers are going to hold on to their stuff forever. Many of us have sold things over the years that at one point or another we never dreamed we would, it just happens. TBH there are very few people out there that will take their collections to the grave and even fewer that actually intend to.

I guess my point here is that even though collectors quickly hoover up everything that comes to the market, a lot of it (especially recently) was not previously accounted for and by it going to collectors it means that the chances of it being recycled and ending up with another collector in the future are far higher than if it was still stuck in a box in some mouldy old shop in Wales :lol:

Same goes for all the stuff people are moving about and selling off, it's all still coming up for sale for one reason or another which means collectors really don't have to stress themselves that much in order to find what they want.

I'm comparing the amount of stuff I see now compared to 10 years ago and it's amazing! That's despite the fact that I was one of many people that thought U grading was going to have an incredibly damaging impact on the amount of carded figures out there! :shock:

 

[Joe]

Joe I agree that nothing is impossible - you could throw a million pounds at this hobby and probably get exactly what you want

But.. in terms of supply - it is 'minimal' because there is only a finite number of these items and there will never (legitimately) in increase the number available (as they have already been made)

A point that I think should be considered as well is that I don't think these items are moving around as much - even when I gt back into the hobby 6-7 years ago people would build up a run and then sell it - so the same pieces went round and round in collections - I don't think that is the case so much anymore

True to say that there is a finite number out there but the important thing to remember here is that we really don't know what that number is! You only have to look at the Meccano shipping boxes found and auctioned off in 2013 or the Beeches toy shop stuff that's STILL being auctioned off (what is this the third auction now?) - Sure, these finds aren't happening daily or even monthly/yearly but they are happening - in 2015/2016! Even that Tony Hilson find, I admit I don't think he told me the full story (which is why the feature is no longer on the site) but that was a big bump for Trilogo numbers and if we are to believe what he said in the interview, the source had boxes of them in his loft..call me stupid but I'm a believer in the possibility of that being a fact!

The totals are being increased by decent numbers with each and every one of these finds and I really believe there is far more out there than we'll ever know or hear about.

 

[Robstyley]

Interesting thread. I am finding the prices are getting me down a bit. I've been steadily trying to complete a loose set for years now, I'm in no rush and I've enjoyed doing it slowly, picking up the best figures every now and then. I'm now after the last 17 (I have four of them) and the price of some of them has got ridiculous, beyond what I am willing to pay. Example; I bid £101 on an R2 pop up yesterday and was the highest bidder for a day or so at about £87, it's just gone up to £205 and will prob go much higher!! I'm sure I'll be able to pick up most of them for a reasonable price but the Yak, Luke Stormy and R2 are way out of town for my budget now. I have still enjoyed collecting MOC's though and picking some up for great prices on here, FB and eBay. I'm on a few FB groups and I'm not that keen, as mentioned loads of frenzied buying, overpriced beaters and people giving it the large. My favourite one is the ROTJ group but annoyingly it's based in the US and the postage and fees make buying off there undoable. Agree with Iain, patience is the key, don't buy into all the hype. The fad collectors won't last and us that are really into it will :wink:

 

[Woolyniner]

I don't think the bubble will burst in the next few years, but will it say 50 years from now when most of us had collected the toys as children pass away? Most true antique toys pre-date mass production, how will the vintage star wars market be affected when the buyers pass away but there are still large quantities of figures out there? Or will degradation of the toys play a part?

Personally I don't care as I only collect as a connection to my childhood, I budget buy, and in no way do I use it as an investment opportunity. My kids just see it as Dads sad hobby and I see little inheritance value in them.

 

[RifleSmile]

I understand peoples frustration with Facebook but recently it feels to me like the only place to buy and sell anymore. I love this place and the great sense of community but one thing I have noticed is a massive dip in activity in the sales threads vs. last year. Ive only been around here for a year so maybe its a seasonal thing?

Case in point, I put a thread up here first selling about 10 MOCs at what I genuinely believe were bargain prices in the current market and only got one bite from the forum.

I listed the next day on Facebook and my hand was bitten off for them.I have also managed to snatch some MOCs at GREAT prices on Facebook recently.

Anyway back to topic - Whilst my experience in the hobby is still limited compared to some of you guys,I really don't see the bubble bursting, perhaps some slow down. But with the new movies, another generation behind us will want these figures and toys. Of that I have no doubt.

 

[RifleSmile]

Interestingly - A 12 back Luke MOC that I put up for sale here at a very competitive price (£475 - what I paid) and I put it on EvilBay when it didn't move and it sold almost instantly.

The guy has immediately looked to flip it (as I suspected he might) and put it back on Ebay with some very dodgy blurred pictures that don't show the true extent of its "issues"

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/301870326752?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT

Will be interesting to see what he goes for....ps - if anyone is interested in it and wants to see some proper photos just go to the sales section here :lol:

 

[Joe]

I understand peoples frustration with Facebook but recently it feels to me like the only place to buy and sell anymore. I love this place and the great sense of community but one thing I have noticed is a massive dip in activity in the sales threads vs. last year. Ive only been around here for a year so maybe its a seasonal thing?

Case in point, I put a thread up here first selling about 10 MOCs at what I genuinely believe were bargain prices in the current market and only got one bite from the forum.

I listed the next day on Facebook and my hand was bitten off for them.I have also managed to snatch some MOCs at GREAT prices on Facebook recently.

Anyway back to topic - Whilst my experience in the hobby is still limited compared to some of you guys,I really don't see the bubble bursting, perhaps some slow down. But with the new movies, another generation behind us will want these figures and toys. Of that I have no doubt.

Facebook definitely seems to be a much faster paced environment for sales. I wonder if that's related to the amount of time the people in the groups have been involved in collecting vs the people on the forum though? In most peoples first couple of years it seems to be all about acquiring stuff vs refining a collection/deciding on a focus.. it's all about buying as much as you can as quickly as you can.

If the majority of the FB group members are newish to collecting (1-2 years) and at that particular stage then it's no wonder things move quicker there than here. I'd say for the most part, many regulars on SWF been around a long time, have amassed a decent sized collection and may not even be looking for anything to buy.

Just a thought!

 

[RifleSmile]

I understand peoples frustration with Facebook but recently it feels to me like the only place to buy and sell anymore. I love this place and the great sense of community but one thing I have noticed is a massive dip in activity in the sales threads vs. last year. Ive only been around here for a year so maybe its a seasonal thing?

Case in point, I put a thread up here first selling about 10 MOCs at what I genuinely believe were bargain prices in the current market and only got one bite from the forum.

I listed the next day on Facebook and my hand was bitten off for them.I have also managed to snatch some MOCs at GREAT prices on Facebook recently.

Anyway back to topic - Whilst my experience in the hobby is still limited compared to some of you guys,I really don't see the bubble bursting, perhaps some slow down. But with the new movies, another generation behind us will want these figures and toys. Of that I have no doubt.

Facebook definitely seems to be a much faster paced environment for sales. I wonder if that's related to the amount of time the people in the groups have been involved in collecting vs the people on the forum though? In most peoples first couple of years it seems to be all about acquiring stuff vs refining a collection/deciding on a focus.. it's all about buying as much as you can as quickly as you can.

If the majority of the FB group members are newish to collecting (1-2 years) and at that particular stage then it's no wonder things move quicker there than here. I'd say for the most part, many regulars on SWF been around a long time, have amassed a decent sized collection and may not even be looking for anything to buy.

Just a thought!

Definitely fair comment Joe - As someone relatively new to the hobby I remember in my first six months grabbing something almost weekly and its only recently realised that I needed to decide on a focus (hence why I sold so many MOCs recently!)

 

[Snaketibe]

I've been collecting for a lot of years now, and I've only ever seen prices move in one direction. I'm sure there's been an acceleration in the rate of increase recently, and I certainly agree that the current prices of loose figures in particular is ridiculous at times (I too was watching the eye-watering £250 Tri Fett on eBay, but I certainly wasn't paying that for it!). I think the point is that Star Wars has always attracted new fans, both to the films and the toys. Even in the early nineties I knew avid vintage collecting kids that weren't even born when Jedi came out. These films and this hobby attracts new fans and always has. And of course there's also then the inevitable nostalgic drive for many of those kids, once they've grown into adults, that makes many of them want to recapture their childhoods, and hence buy the figures they owned previously but sold (to buy a BMX, in my case... and it wasn't even a good one!).

Will the bubble burst? I doubt it, not for a long while yet at any rate. Previous generations had their dolls, train sets, Corgi and Dinky, etc., and whilst they do remain popular, I doubt that popularity will last significantly beyond the generations that owned them as toys when they were children. Star Wars is different and always has been a special case due to the way it attracts new fans. I'm sure Corgi and Dinky attract their own share of new collectors too, but it won't be on anything like the same scale (i.e. percentage numbers) that vintage Star Wars does. And of course, Disney hoovering up at the box office every year from now until the end of time will keep Star Wars in the news and consciousness of current and would-be fans and collectors for years to come. Some fans will doubtless tire of the new films, especially if they're poor, but the original trilogy will always be there, and if anything, the new films being poor may well only serve to remind people how good the originals were and hence push still more collectors our way.

I have often wondered how many kids that owned the modern Hasbro Star Wars toy line will feel nostalgic about it in later life. Many doubtless will, but the prices of the pieces will never compete with vintage due to the sheer difference in the available quantity of each, not to mention the vast difference in the number of different toys available in each of the lines. Vintage collecting therefore has many different reasons behind its enduring popularity, which inevitably mirrors the popularity of the original trilogy. Yes of course The Force Awakens has kindled or rekindled interest for many new collectors (and the inevitable scalpers and investors) to enter the marketplace and drive up prices on vintage items, but a lot of those new collectors will stick with the hobby, like most of the people reading this have doubtless done. So in conclusion, I think sadly, high prices are here to stay for quite a while yet... But of course, I have been known to be wrong... from time to time... or was that R2? ;-)

 

[x-pack]

Has anything ever been collected in the same way by so many as star wars toys? I cant think of anything so popular. Maybe stamps or something.

But anyway, I would go along with the notion that collecting vintage star wars could be a generational thing which means it will have a shelf life ...a ****ing long one.

Cannot see our kids feeling the same connection for our old toys, except maybe the money side of things. But that's not enough to drive the hobby.

 

[skywalker]

I'd say when it literally dose burst... i.e when the toys start to deteriorate from age, bubble falling from card's ect... the value will depreciate, how long will that be....... Not too sure..

 

[RifleSmile]

I'd say when it literally dose burst... i.e when the toys start to deteriorate from age, bubble falling from card's ect... the value will depreciate, how long will that be....... Not too sure..

Bubbles yellowing yes - but falling off?