The beginning of the end?

[lejackal]

So as we know the market has slowed over summer, dipped even, my question is is that it, has VSW peaked for most things?
Will we now see everyday production pieces that aren't propelled to flavour of the month level out and even drop or will TLJ spur things on with a new wave of collectors?

 

[mr_palitoy]

I think the market is good as long as Disney are churning out new content.

The thing that will bring on the big decline in vintage prices will be when the collectors starting passing on.

If you go to the likes of Barry Potter, its stuffed full of corgi/matchbox cars and trains from the 50s/60s and not many buyers. That will be Star Wars in 20-30 years time.



Jason

 

[Grant_C]

I guess we'll see next week after the new Luke Skywalker trailer.

Personally, I don't see any downturn. I see pencil case shop displays going for £5000 and 77 Back ROTJ Luke Jedis being discussed at £250 as if its normal conversation. Loose Leia's at £100+, I think we may have seeing a slowing of a serge in process, but guess we'll see.

 

[lejackal]

I guess we'll see next week after the new Luke Skywalker trailer.

Personally, I don't see any downturn. I see pencil case shop displays going for £5000 and 77 Back ROTJ Luke Jedis being discussed at £250 as if its normal conversation. Loose Leia's at £100+, I think we may have seeing a slowing of a serge in process, but guess we'll see.

Fortunately the £250 Luke and the £390 one that made it look cheap were not the norm from looking at other sales.
Leias are still suffering flavour of the month syndrome but I keep seeing reasonably priced items hanging around, overpriced not moving at all and eBay auctions offering real value compared to the start of the year.

Maybe I'm just hoping for a few more bargains

 

[lejackal]

I think the market is good as long as Disney are churning out new content.

The thing that will bring on the big decline in vintage prices will be when the collectors starting passing on.

If you go to the likes of Barry Potter, its stuffed full of corgi/matchbox cars and trains from the 50s/60s and not many buyers. That will be Star Wars in 20-30 years time.



Jason

Very true about the fairs, pop culture items sell far more than the die cast, trains and dolls.
I think a lot of us newer collectors will drop out over time, the novelty value will wear off and people will move on. Maybe. Obviously could just be spouting utter b/s :lol:

 

[Clarkspie&chips]

As Churchill once said "it is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning".

I feel like we're at a point of saturation, there can't be many more people left to enter the hobby and with the frequency the new films are released and how everything it seems is Star Wars these days perhaps people will lose interest.

I wasn't collecting during the prequel period but did people see things starting to decline around attack of the clones?

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

There has just been an article on this very subject on the swca blog, well worth a read: http://blog.theswca.com/2017/10/

I don't think we are even remotely close to the hobby declining. Just you wait till the 'I grew up Star Wars' generation reaches 65 retirement age and then you'll see some serious increases in terms of time and money being poured into the hobby. All of us old duffers will need something to fill our days with, and by my reckoning that's still 20 years away!

 

[lejackal]

There has just been an article on this very subject on the swca blog, well worth a read: http://blog.theswca.com/2017/10/

Thanks Matt, I'll have a read of that when I get home

I don't think we are even remotely close to the hobby declining. Just you wait till the 'I grew up Star Wars' generation reaches 65 retirement age and then you'll see some serious increases in terms of time and money being poured into the hobby. All of us old duffers will need something to fill our days with, and by my reckoning that's still 20 years away!

Speak for yourself, firstly I can add on ten years to that timeline, secondly I hear there's a vacancy at a certain playboy mansion :lol: :lol:

 

[subzero]

Personally I still think prices have a long way to go yet, Star Wars is a juggernaut and I think there will be enough new collectors getting into it even in 20 or 30 years. In that much time from now the amount of high grade toys and near mint examples will become much less common compared to today I think, toys degrade, get worn, broken, lost, stored away in lofts and forgotten about, etc etc, no matter how much things are looked after the amount of near mint figures will gradually diminish over time.

There might be less of a number of collectors overall in 30 or 40 years compared to today but they will all be collecting from a supply of mint examples that has dwindled, so even if common and lower grade figures drop in value in the future then high grade and rare figures will hold good value. And then think about what vintage Star Wars toys has done to people's perspectives, a lot of people only have to hear the words Star Wars and they see $$$ even with modern stuff, this mentality will be passed on for a long time I reckon and will keep vintage prices on a high for ages.

Just a theory of course! :?

 

[jared007]

I think there has been a lot less activity taking place in terms of facebook chatter. I saw one post the other day from a guy selling up his collection because he has the chance to buy a classic car he always wanted. So I wonder if after the frenzy of the last few years, people are starting to move on and out of this hobby. If that becomes a trend, perhaps prices will pullback ...

I haven't really seen prices dip, bargains are still out there, so are top prices being paid. But I get the feeling there is a lot less transactions taking place. Perhaps everyone is just taking a moment and enjoying what they have finally.

 

[lejackal]

Since my op some nutter has paid £572 for a Trilogo Hybrid Greedo in far worse condition than the last one to sell at about £400 so I take it back :lol:

 

[subzero]

Since my op some nutter has paid £572 for a Trilogo Hybrid Greedo in far worse condition than the last one to sell at about £400 so I take it back :lol:

Wow

I spotted that auction and actually forgot to watch it to see what it went for.

 

[maxf]

I don't see it as the beginning of the end at all! A stable market is a good thing - rapid price rises and crazy bidders for relatively common items, while fun to look at, don't do us any favours as collectors. We are probably going into a phase of stability - some of the crazy prices are back down to earth, but that's no bad thing!

 

[maxf]

I saw one post the other day from a guy selling up his collection because he has the chance to buy a classic car he always wanted.

I saw that too - I wonder if it was a 250GTO, or a Morris Marina!

I sold a few bits recently, hit a brick wall with finishing a run and needed to free up some space, so I put them in a box for a few weeks, didnt miss them, so sold them. I put about half back into SW but also spent some of the money on a bit for my hi-fi (another expensive hobby!), so I certainly kept the money in 'hobbies' but not all SW.

 

[kieatky]

Bring back the 1990's, where you could attend any local boot sale/school fair and get a bag full of figures for 10p each. Now that was sensible pricing

 

[subzero]

I don't see it as the beginning of the end at all! A stable market is a good thing

Very true!

 

[mumbo]

I guess we'll see next week after the new Luke Skywalker trailer.

Personally, I don't see any downturn. I see pencil case shop displays going for £5000 and 77 Back ROTJ Luke Jedis being discussed at £250 as if its normal conversation. Loose Leia's at £100+, I think we may have seeing a slowing of a serge in process, but guess we'll see.

Fortunately the £250 Luke and the £390 one that made it look cheap were not the norm from looking at other sales.
Leias are still suffering flavour of the month syndrome but I keep seeing reasonably priced items hanging around, overpriced not moving at all and eBay auctions offering real value compared to the start of the year.

Maybe I'm just hoping for a few more bargains

And I thought I overpaid for the ROTJ LJ I got from Vectis back in May ............ oh hold on I did overpay :lol:

 

[lejackal]

Bring back the 1990's, where you could attend any local boot sale/school fair and get a bag full of figures for 10p each. Now that was sensible pricing

Nice to see you posting again mate

 

[TheJabbaWookie]

If you’re looking very short term there was a major drop off on ebay over summer (not unusual) but there has been no real pick up since. Prices had hit a peak in May when a high graded AFA Princess Leia Organa sold for £800 plus.

 

[lejackal]

I don't see it as the beginning of the end at all! A stable market is a good thing - rapid price rises and crazy bidders for relatively common items, while fun to look at, don't do us any favours as collectors. We are probably going into a phase of stability - some of the crazy prices are back down to earth, but that's no bad thing!

Not at all, no market can rise indefinitely, collector or otherwise. I for one will be thrilled at a bit of stability