grading companies' "pop" reports: who cares?

[Matthieu]

Following up on Frank's latest thread about value vs/ rarity, I thought I would start this chat about a matter that has been annoying me a lot lately.
I see more and more listings, posts or videos from professional or semi-professional dealers but also collectors who boast owning or selling a "rare" grading item with a very small "pop" (population report) number.
I just can't get my head around on how a pop number should have any significance when it comes to assessing rarity or value. An item gets graded because its owner decided to send it in for grading. There is a wide range of Star Wars toys, production and prototypes, that are not graded or of which very few examples are graded, just because their owners do not do grading. For example, a lot of old school high-end collectors, including collectors from the US, just do not care about grading, while they own the most rare and valuable items. Also, European collectors who collect local releases (e.g. Meccano, Trilogo...) do not have their items graded because sending in to the US is too risky and UKG is not viewed as a worthy option.
Apart from a couple MOC's I have in my collection that I bought already graded, none of my Meccano / Trilogo MOCs is graded. Some of them (when I say "some" I could say "all"!) have a very small "pop" number whereas they are not particularly rare.
I am not implying that grading is bad or that it does not add any value: I do understand that collectors find it cool to have nice and rare items graded, sometimes it can even be very useful in order to authenticate an item (the only one item I ever sent in to AFA is a K. Simmons' photo sample). I also do believe it adds value (although not as much value as dealers would claim). I just don't think the number of graded examples for a particular item should be taken into account when it comes to assessing value / rarity.
What are your thoughts?

 

[Beeper383]

Following up on Frank's latest thread about value vs/ rarity, I thought I would start this chat about a matter that has been annoying me a lot lately.
I see more and more listings, posts or videos from professional or semi-professional dealers but also collectors who boast owning or selling a "rare" grading item with a very small "pop" (population report) number.
I just can't get my head around on how a pop number should have any significance when it comes to assessing rarity or value. An item gets graded because its owner decided to send it in for grading. There is a wide range of Star Wars toys, production and prototypes, that are not graded or of which very few examples are graded, just because their owners do not do grading. For example, a lot of old school high-end collectors, including collectors from the US, just do not care about grading, while they own the most rare and valuable items. Also, European collectors who collect local releases (e.g. Meccano, Trilogo...) do not have their items graded because sending in to the US is too risky and UKG is not viewed as a worthy option.
Apart from a couple MOC's I have in my collection that I bought already graded, none of my Meccano / Trilogo MOCs is graded. Some of them (when I say "some" I could say "all"!) have a very small "pop" number whereas they are not particularly rare.
I am not implying that grading is bad or that it does not add any value: I do understand that collectors find it cool to have nice and rare items graded, sometimes it can even be very useful in order to authenticate an item (the only one item I ever sent in to AFA is a K. Simmons' photo sample). I also do believe it adds value (although not as much value as dealers would claim). I just don't think the number of graded examples for a particular item should be taken into account when it comes to assessing value / rarity.
What are your thoughts?

I'm currently having a few months break from active collecting, so delving into philosophical musing is a welcome distraction from the e-bay lure.

Much like you I do not actively collect graded items, however, I do have a few graded MOCs because I wanted the figure. Grading popularity seems to have emerged after I stopped collecting in the early 00s and perhaps this is why I haven't taken a big interest (but, the costs would be preclusive as well). However, I can see the benefits, especially the 'best possible' authenticity for rarer items. They also display well, although, GW Acrylic have sorted that for non graded MOCs.

Anyway, I also note that many collectors now focus on graded items. So it follows that there is a market. And, for me that is the bottom line. If there is a market for low 'pop' counts, it is what it is.

 

[Hod10]

I lot of collectors buy graded and then crack the item out of the acrylic casing. Population reports are not that accurate.

 

[lejackal]

I could start a grading company tomorrow, grade a logray Palitoy card at 90 and say it's a 1 of 1. Means sweet FA, there's hundreds of them out there

 

[Beeper383]

I lot of collectors buy graded and then crack the item out of the acrylic casing. Population reports are not that accurate.

This makes zero sense to me, unless the acrylic is in poor condition of course. Is there a reason why collectors are doing this?

 

[Hod10]

This makes zero sense to me, unless the acrylic is in poor condition of course. Is there a reason why collectors are doing this?

It's a case of wanting the item inside and not the grade or case. Crack them open. They may not care about grading and want the item to fit in with the rest of their collection.

 

[Matthieu]

I could start a grading company tomorrow, grade a logray Palitoy card at 90 and say it's a 1 of 1. Means sweet FA, there's hundreds of them out there

Exactly my point!

 

[theforceuk]

I collect both, and always collect the item not the grade, it's meant to be fun.

 

[Cazza]

This makes zero sense to me, unless the acrylic is in poor condition of course. Is there a reason why collectors are doing this?

I've bought many a graded item and always broken them out of jail and put them in a GW Acrylic case. I always want to be able to have my figures 'in hand' when I want. It's all about the nostalgia for me and having them permanently sealed in acrylic doesn't really tick that box, in my book!

 

[Mini99]

I've searched everywhere for a course, exam and qualification to be a grader…unfortunately I can't find any yet.
Until that day, all its going to be is" smoke and mirrors" so won't be paying the premium that grading often carries.
As for the population reports, it another case of ******** as to how many are actually out there, graded by another company or un graded…more reasons to put the price up of items.

 

[theforceuk]

I can understand why grading is a thing, everyone wants to know what condition there item is in before buying without seeing in hand and grading gives you a rough idea. With good photos as well. You're also reducing the risk of buying a fake, Toy Toni aside!! They're going for silly money now.

Each to their own, I don't hate on either, all my MOC are graded, none of my MOTU collection is and never will be. The great thing about collecting is you can collect how and what you want.

 

[Beeper383]

I've bought many a graded item and always broken them out of jail and put them in a GW Acrylic case. I always want to be able to have my figures 'in hand' when I want. It's all about the nostalgia for me and having them permanently sealed in acrylic doesn't really tick that box, in my book!

This is a bit of an eye opener for me. Bearing in mind I have only met a couple of Star Wars collectors before joining this forum. One of those collected graded and ungraded, the other did not buy in to grading. I can fully understand the want to be able to handle the items and that is also exactly where I am. The bit I struggle with is why pay the graded premium to then release the figure from carbonite? Although, I'm guessing it's either (1) best possible assurance of quality, (2) best possible assurance of authenticity, (3) unable to find the item easily ungraded, or a combination of the three?

 

[Beeper383]

I've searched everywhere for a course, exam and qualification to be a grader…unfortunately I can't find any yet.
Until that day, all its going to be is" smoke and mirrors" so won't be paying the premium that grading often carries.
As for the population reports, it another case of ******** as to how many are actually out there, graded by another company or un graded…more reasons to put the price up of items.

This is logical. So, we do not have a Denominator. Even if we had numbers of all items made at each factory (which presumably we don't or there would never have been debates such as 'does a Palitoy VCJ exist'), we would not have data on the numbers surviving now. And, the revelation (for me!) that collectors don't necessarily keep graded figures in their sealed cases means that we do not have a Numerator.

Therefore, from a statistical perspective, no Numerator and no Denominator, it holds that the pop number is entirely pointless.

All that is left is a perception of added value that brings me back to my first post - 'the market'.

 

[Beeper383]

It's a case of wanting the item inside and not the grade or case. Crack them open. They may not care about grading and want the item to fit in with the rest of their collection.

Thank you, this in part answers some of my posed discussion questions above.

Apologies for carpet bombing this chat - collecting gap is leaving me idle.

 

[Cazza]

This is a bit of an eye opener for me. Bearing in mind I have only met a couple of Star Wars collectors before joining this forum. One of those collected graded and ungraded, the other did not buy in to grading. I can fully understand the want to be able to handle the items and that is also exactly where I am. The bit I struggle with is why pay the graded premium to then release the figure from carbonite? Although, I'm guessing it's either (1) best possible assurance of quality, (2) best possible assurance of authenticity, (3) unable to find the item easily ungraded, or a combination of the three?

I only ever buy graded items that are a good price, e.g. equivalent with an upgraded example or less. I never pay the graded premium. For example, I bought a 12-back Palitoy Sandpeople, that was graded 70. It's a stunner, but has a hairline 3mm crack under the bubble, that gave it the 70 score. You wouldn't notice it unless it was pointed out to you. The 70 score actually made it cheaper than the upgraded examples available. It looks like a 90 all day long! Scores of under 80 can actually damage value significantly.

1&2. I feel confident enough in my own experience and judgement in the hobby, not to require grading authenticity reassurance. If I was in any doubt, I would ask fellow collectors on here etc.

3. Yes, the graded items I have bought have been purely for the item, not the grade, due to availability and price.

 

[Beeper383]

I only ever buy graded items that are a good price, e.g. equivalent with an upgraded example or less. I never pay the graded premium. For example, I bought a 12-back Palitoy Sandpeople, that was graded 70. It's a stunner, but has a hairline 3mm crack under the bubble, that gave it the 70 score. You wouldn't notice it unless it was pointed out to you. The 70 score actually made it cheaper than the upgraded examples available. It looks like a 90 all day long! Scores of under 80 can actually damage value significantly.

1&2. I feel confident enough in my own experience and judgement in the hobby, not to require grading authenticity reassurance. If I was in any doubt, I would ask fellow collectors on here etc.

3. Yes, the graded items I have bought have been purely for the item, not the grade, due to availability and price.

I hadn't considered the reverse value, of a low grade reducing the value on an otherwise fantastic figure. I had generally deliberately avoided graded on the assumption of the high price. I'll now have a rethink. Thanks for that tip

 

[Matthieu]

Very intersting comments here!
Again, to be clear, my post was not about the merits of grading itself. I do understand why collectors enjoy collecting graded and how a grade may add value to an item (although I find the premium to be always way too high).
My point was only about the so-called "pop reports" and why a collector would care about those. It's become such a thing that now collectors / dealers would only refer to the "pop" number and not to the grade, as though the "pop" applied to the item itself (as in ungraded) and not to the item as graded by this or that company, which to me is highly misleading.

 

[peekaygee73]

I once bought a loose graded Leia Endor figure which came with the first 12 Leia pistol, rather than the correct blaster. It was £50, and this was in the days those blasters were pushing £70-80 on their own. I cracked it open to pair the blaster with my first 12 figure, and the bonus was the figure was an upgrade for my Leis Endor.

It wasn't selling due to the blaster grading error.