The hobby in 5 years

[Ross_Barr]

Having just read three different threads that quickly got off track here because of the same old, tired, unimaginative "Forums v. Facebook" debate and digs, I was wondering if we could try to have an intelligent discussion without attacking any other forum, Facebook group, etc. about where you all think the hobby will be in five years. Topics of discussion could include, among anything else you think relevant:

-Where prices will be

-Will the hobby have continued to gain more and more members because of all the SW movies slated to come out in the next few years or have we plateaued in new hobby entrants already

-Which items will people be gravitating towards

-Where will collectors primarily conduct discussions, trading, etc - more forums, more Facebook groups, something else not yet known

-etc

I know it will be very difficult for some people, but perhaps we can have a discussion without taking any digs at other forums or FB groups.

 

[itfciain]

-Where prices will be - for a lot of more 'common' items then I can't see prices much higher than they are today (maybe adjusted for inflation) - the harder to find items will continue to rise but a lot will depend on the state of the global economy over those five years as to how much by

-Will the hobby have continued to gain more and more members because of all the SW movies slated to come out in the next few years or have we plateaued in new hobby entrants already - more members than now for sure - but probably not by the same increase as we have seen during the past 18 months - and there is obviously how many of those new members will be solely vintage fans

-Which items will people be gravitating towards - million dollar question - wish I knew and I would buy them all now - I think iconic pieces - like 12 backs, DTs, VCJ, Yak Face will be popular and there are certainly a great number of those - loose will always do well at entry level because they are easily attainable. The Pre-Production pieces will remain grails for a lot but think that with limited numbers then these will (if they aren't already) become unobtainable for most people's budgets

-Where will collectors primarily conduct discussions, trading, etc - more forums, more Facebook groups, something else not yet known - the forums will always be the knowledge source - RS, TIG and obviously this place are full of threads and threads of important information. FB as a sales medium will be interesting to follow - I have a feeling that they are looking to move in on eBays market. I think that FB is an easy platform in which to show, gossip and generally take part in the hobby without too much effort - how long that will last - or if another medium arrives that is anyone's guess but I am sure that the forums will survive and remain an important part of the hobby

 

[edd_jedi]

Although it's guess work, I am pretty sure interest in Star Wars will wane eventually. It has already happened twice with the OT and prequels. Who wanted Star Wars toys in 85 or 2007? Nobody! Hype always dies down, even Disney won't be able to re-create the TFA hype for every new film and offshoot they do.

So let's say prices have doubled over the last 2 years, I do not believe they will do so every year for the next five years. That is unsustainable. Prices might go up sure, but the rises of the last 18 months are the fastest I have seen in 20+ years collecting. I'm sure any economists among us will agree that hyper-growth is not a long term possibility.

I am also sure that trends will change. Right now everybody seems to love 12 backs and the main characters, no doubt because of all the newbies being sucked in by the new films. In 5 years I think something a bit more obscure will become popular, just like trilogos did 5 years ago.

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

Oh, I certainly think the hobby will continue to attract new blood (although by new blood I mean guys in their 40s who have a bit of money to spare and are looking for a hobby, and perhaps a hobby they can also share with their kids to some extent). Likely most of the new entry level collectors will be at the lower end of the spectrum, loose figures, maybe a Falcon and X-Wing, etc, but there will always be some taking it more seriously and gravitating upwards towards the higher end of the spectrum.

In terms of new 'hot' areas within the hobby, I'd have to say posters. I'm biased here because I've moved into Star Wars poster collecting myself a while back, but they are awesome, they are vintage, they have the wow factor, and most of them are still attainable on a relatively modest budget.

 

[yoda]

I think a lot will depend how the other movies go. When talk of TFA started so did all this massive hype. It even brought back my old memories with my childhood toys. I noticed myself even trying to buy more which I am afraid to tally up what I've spent over the years. But I don't care it makes me happy and probably I will never stop trying to upgrade my collection.
I think people will still be caught up in the hype until all the movies are finished. Then it will be back to people collecting again who grew up playing with the very first figures like most of us. I think the collectors who never grew up with the toys don't have the same attachment to them. So over time I can see them being sold again and hopefully over time the prices will begin to drop.
Until all the movies finish I think people will still be after all the older figures and anything vintage star wars related. But I hope I am wrong and prices begin to even out or drop abit

 

[SAVORY100]

What will be collected?
The toys and their packaging hold the strings to the heart, so can't see them becoming unpopular anytime soon.

In terms of new 'hot' areas within the hobby, I'd have to say posters. I'm biased here because I've moved into Star Wars poster collecting myself a while back, but they are awesome, they are vintage, they have the wow factor, and most of them are still attainable on a relatively modest budget.

I think that the poster point could be very valid. The don't carry the potential stigma of being a toy collector from those outside of the community. They are also incredibly cool and to add icing to the cake they are of course a much easier sell to wives and girlfriends to put up either around the house or in an office/den.

What platform will the community be on in 5 years time?
I'm not too sure it will be on a single dominant media platform at all; I'd be surprised if the whole community doesn't become very dissipated before maybe coming back together again. I think this will be for a few reasons; there appears to be very different collecting styles coming out (flash harry's with a load of money, old timers, purists, completists, flippers of course), I think therefore different platforms will separate these sub communities out over time and people do tend to huddle together with those they like. You can already see this with some of the FB groups, some are very insular and only seem to like their own members, newbies are not easily invited in... some might say that happens here too if they're not careful with their own introduction of course.

I'm already seeing that outside of Star Wars, my social media world is changing, twitter is dying if not already almost dead, huge swathes of friends and businesses (let alone celerities) are switching over to Instagram, my kids don't use or want to use Facebook, they're both on IG. My brother's business' main social media exposure is through IG too. There are actually a rather large Star Wars selling community already underway on there, specifically the US (of course) and in a bigger way Japan and Asia generally, its difficult though as its basically unpoliced sellers, lots of gear, some bargains of course some very dodgy sellers too...

All of that aside a forum format or wikipedia style site will always be required to slake the thirst for knowledge, but regular updates to format and ease of search will be key to staying at the top of the pile in this style of information sharing. The customers/users will always be old guys, but they'll also always want the new and better/best to go with the vintage; it adds credibility and of course easier to use more users.

Prices...
I do think they'll continue in some circles to escalate and in more solid communities where the rises are not so tolerated (like here) be kept as low as possible in the face of the rises. Not sure when the drop will come, but I'm certain it will in some way, even if a small one, as has been said the Disney steam train can't roll on forever and the spotlight will move on in some way in about 5 years time. I believe strongly that the famously expensive stuff/figures/MOCs will maintain the premium and the more common Klaatu's will forever be the ugly hooker that stays cheaper than the rest.

 

[jedisearcher]

In 5 years time Vectis will be on Beechs Sale number 96, Palitoy 12 backs will be as common as Klaatu 65 backs are now, all of the collectors who financially over-extended themselves in 2016 will be living in cardboard boxes under railway bridges, all collectors will have dynamic Facebook chips surgically implanted into their heads so they don't miss out on fast-moving For Sale threads and Iain will have cornered the acrylic market and will have made himself his first billion.

Or maybe:

Prices for quality and perceived rare items will have continued to rise, whereas common items are still at the broadly the same prices as 10 years ago, abit like now. Everyone will be wondering when the bubble will burst.

There will be more collectors with more disposable incomes as more people hit the sweet 40+ and other financial commitments drop away. Star Wars isn't going away anytime soon.

Quality and perceived rare production items will always be the thing to buy. Everything else is too niche for "most" collectors.

Discussion will take place in the same places as now, maybe swinging from traditional forms to the next big thing, but fragmentation will be an issue. Users of the new and old will still bitch at each other.

 

[Joe]

I'm more interested in what will happen in 20-25 years when the now 40 somethings are considering cashing out :mrgreen:

 

[itfciain]

Iain will have cornered the acrylic market and will have made himself his first billion..

works for me :lol:

 

[x-pack]

I think there will always be a good influx of new collectors, or at least until the 'grew up in the 80's' generation dies out. Not really sure about new generations. It always seems to me that a deep Star Wars connection comes from growing up in the 70's and 80's, but maybe i'm just not thinking outside the box.

The most obvious thing to collect is a run of loose figures, so they will probably always be popular and slowly rise in value for the more scarce ones. Some of the more common figures haven't really risen value wise since the 90's. Same thing with loose ships.

As for the rare and desirable bits - I can only see them going up in value until people decide enough is enough, or until the next crazy scam, like the TT thing. What could do the most damage and ultimately drive down prices is the amount of reproduction garbage out there. It would only take some top collectors to wind up paying through the nose for something they thought was orginal but turned out repro to rattle some faith. We saw that with TT. Very damaging.

 

[jedisearcher]

I'm more interested in what will happen in 20-25 years when the now 40 somethings are considering cashing out :mrgreen:

Trying to stay on topic :lol: what's happened to traditional pastimes? Say stamp collecting from years ago, golden age comics, and maybe tin toys and railways abit more recently. Those collectors must be older than the average SW collector, have they fallen/risen/stayed same? Anyone know?

I think Star Wars has a place as a sort of pop culture icon, meaning it'll do ok in the long term. Someone did a thread ages ago regarding collectors ages and there were as many under 40s as over, so presumably collections just move on to the younger collectors. Maybe at a discount depending on when they were bought/price paid etc.

 

[mr_palitoy]

I will be older, fatter, have even less hair and have sold all my palitoys stalking Daisy Ridley round the world.

Toni, will have passed on and there will be a thriving Palitoy unused cardback collecting community of the 5000 cardbacks he didnt card up.

Ross Barr will have moved on from topless photos with vintage toys to full nude.

Facebook will have folded and everyone will be on a new social media called Friends Reunited Reunited.

That is all.

Jason

 

[spoons]

Facebook will have folded and everyone will be on a new social media called Friends Reunited Reunited.

Jason

Very astute!

In the next five years I don't see much change bar a gradual increase in prices. Once this trilogy is done and the world becomes as bored with SW spin offs as they have with Marvel spin offs then we'll see a drop off in popularity/prices but no real bursting of the bubble.

The current hype will last at least until 2020 and Ep 9 - and the hype is infectious. I've bought two die cast Force Awaken Black Series and a modern loose Han Hoth in the last few weeks. I never normally buy modern as there is no nostalgia, but TFA has just changed that and presumably kids today will now be collecting 30 years after TFA, whether on the same scale as us lot only time will tell.

 

[theforceuk]

Whatever happens I will still be smiling and only posting on this forum.

 

[x-pack]

I will be older, fatter, have even less hair and have sold all my palitoys stalking Daisy Ridley round the world.

Toni, will have passed on and there will be a thriving Palitoy unused cardback collecting community of the 5000 cardbacks he didnt card up.

Ross Barr will have moved on from topless photos with vintage toys to full nude.

Facebook will have folded and everyone will be on a new social media called Friends Reunited Reunited.

That is all.

Jason

Oh I was hoping the machines would rise up, but instead of killing off human-kind they realise it's all just about Facebook and Chitter anyway so immediately decide to scrap themselves. We never even knew ...and vintage Star Wars prices continued to spiral out of control.

When the hippys used to do acid in the 60's and go on about us all 'being as one man', is Facebook the zenith of their ideals?

 

[Ross_Barr]

Ross Barr will have moved on from topless photos with vintage toys to full nude.

The future looks bright.

And hairy.

 

[maxf]

Interesting subject - I think Marvel is an interesting comparison. There have been 1000 Spider-Man films, after the first was massive, the rest have been of varying quality and there have been reboots; but Spider-Man #1 comic is still hugely sought after and expensive. Same for x-men and superman. I see 12backs being similar to those and maybe actually just having their day.

I think we will see peaks and troughs, especially as certain things come in and out of vogue but, short of a financial meltdown, I think prices are going to stay about where they are - on average - we've seen the big price hike with Disney/TFA - now prices will stay about at this 'new' level, unless they do something really stupid with the next films. If there is a financial recession and the availability of funds lessens, we will probably see a 'flight to quality' where collectors sell everything but their nicest pieces - and consequently, the best pieces retain their value.

I think vehicles are yet to have their time in the sun - I know the AFA 85 SW stuff fetches huge money, but there are a million boxed Falcons in lofts all over the world - these are such an easy was into collecting, and still look cool on display. MOC figures are hot right now, and probably always will be - unless shipping problems with delicate bubbles start putting people off trading them.

There will be new blood coming in - for the next few years anyway - I'm 38, and was around for Jedi at the cinema. Collecting SW is becoming more mainstream and less 'sad' - kind of like comic collecting, which has a huge following of all ages. I'm not sure how many collectors today were reading Golden Age comics, or how old the chap who bought Detective Comics #1 is, but I doubt they were buying and reading them as kids. They are probably people who got into silver or bronze age comics, then moved into golden age. The same could easily happen with SW - the kids playing with the toys today could be collectors in 30 years time - the SW universe and timeline is such that kids playing with the latest lines still have a sightline to the vintage toys, even if they were well before their time; they have retained relevance.

I hope that after E9, Disney remake the prequels - completely reboot the early storyline.

 

[edd_jedi]

Toni, will have passed on and there will be a thriving Palitoy unused cardback collecting community of the 5000 cardbacks he didnt card up.

I must admit that thought crossed my mind the other day. He is no spring chicken, he has 15-20 years max left of being able enough to sell his stock. So what's he going to do with it all?

I honestly can't believe he's not cashing in now, as I'm sure you have all noticed he has stopped selling his trilogo's because he has no doubt noticed the spike in prices so is holding on to them. Rewind only a year and he was listing pop-up R2's, A-Wing Pilots, Imperial Dignitary's, Paploo's etc virtually every week.

So either he's running low (which I very much doubt) or thinks it's all going to be worth even more in a couple of years so is holding on to it. But either way, unlike most of us he doesn't have youth on his side, so is going to have to liquidate it all eventually. I know everybody is sour about the Toni MOCs, but he has a **** load of genuine stuff.

I would love to see it all end up in the hands of somebody decent that would not only sell it all but show off the haul, from a historic point of view I think it's criminal that such a huge stash, probably the best there has ever been, has never been documented and simply drip-fed just so some old guy that doesn't even like Star Wars can dodge getting a real job.

 

[Bonsai_Tree_Ent]

I would love to see it all end up in the hands of somebody decent that would not only sell it all but show off the haul, from a historic point of view I think it's criminal that such a huge stash, probably the best there has ever been, has never been documented and simply drip-fed just so some old guy that doesn't even like Star Wars can dodge getting a real job.

I think its criminal that Toni ripped off so many trusting people, for thousands and thousands of £. He deserves to have the bailiffs round to force payment of reparations, or to frank he deserves to be in prison. I don't think he's holding on to his stock to sell when the price gets higher, I think he's lying low.

BTW, in 5 years time will someone finally have posted the link to that trilogo X-Wing which sold on ebay!! http://www.starwarsforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=28851

 

[x-pack]

For him to start selling his stock of cards off would be pretty incriminating. Although it's been pieced together his actual involvement was never proven was it? Or at least he was never cornered about it :?