Changing Collecting/Fan Demographic

[edd_jedi]

After visiting Celebration yesterday and reading this thread it seems to me that us OT fans and collectors are now in the minority. Most stalls at Celebration had people flocking for new toys, and I've seen several sellers say vintage sales have been slow. Most of the cosplayers I saw were wearing prequel or modern costumes, and most of the celebrities and autographers were also not OT (although obviously many actors have passed now so have to take that into account.) The only place vintage collectors looked to be the majority was in the Collecting Track area, which compared to the tens of thousands of attendees was tiny, maybe a couple of hundred people at most.

I think new films and new collectors are great for the longevity of Star Wars as a brand, but it seems that the OT is starting to fade in popularity, both the movies and toys. I was in an antique shop last week and there were stacks of pre-1950s military toys that obviously had been sitting there for years, I assume because the people who played with them as kids are probably dead now, and a younger generation hasn't taken over collecting these things.

So while vintage prices still appear high, is demand starting to fall? Will every Celebration see vintage toys and OT movie attractions fade further into the background? Is it time to start selling off the things I don't need before they become those abandoned antique shop toys?

 

[_Lee_]

Good post Edd

I'm also surprised at the value that some recent carded figures make. The likes of POTF2, Episode 1 etc still go for next to nothing but more recent figures go for insane prices like the one below.

Collecting is definately changing and vintage has certainly slowed down, but I blame that partially on Facebook.

I think vintage is due to crash and its been waiting to happen for months, if not years. The sequels obviously brought out more crap that is already losing money. All these people rushing to go buy Empire magazine with the Kylo action figure a few years back for over £100 is proof of that, as you can get them for next to nothing now.

The market is saturated and the only areas that make real money nowadays is trading cards, autographs and replica props. Just do a search for trading cards and you will see what I mean, a vintage Luke number went for a big amount recently some for even more than the one below.

Trust me, trading cards are the way to go and invest nowadays, as is Lego

 

[lejackal]

Collectible investments will be fine - rocket fett, proofs and high graded stuff. Beater MOCs reseals etc will fall off first, then loose, then moc. Most of that not for a long time, but I'd be worried about ploughing loads into a collection at current prices.

 

[lejackal]

Good post Edd

I'm also surprised at the value that some recent carded figures make. The likes of POTF2, Episode 1 etc still go for next to nothing but more recent figures go for insane prices like the one below.
View attachment 180672
Collecting is definately changing and vintage has certainly slowed down, but I blame that partially on Facebook.

I think vintage is due to crash and its been waiting to happen for months, if not years. The sequels obviously brought out more crap that is already losing money. All these people rushing to go buy Empire magazine with the Kylo action figure a few years back for over £100 is proof of that, as you can get them for next to nothing now.

The market is saturated and the only areas that make real money nowadays is trading cards, autographs and replica props. Just do a search for trading cards and you will see what I mean, a vintage Luke number went for a big amount recently some for even more than the one below.

Trust me, trading cards are the way to go and invest nowadays, as is Lego View attachment 180673

TVC stuff has gone bananas

 

[db94]

TVC stuff has gone bananas

Sell my TVC stuff now, hold on to the cash until the price of vintage R2-D2 MOCS drop

 

[Hod10]

Design is an important factor as to why vintage MOC's will still be in demand long after we are gone. In my opinion, this is due to timeless graphic design. The Vintage Collection and Retro Collection both copy the design of the original packaging. While Stars Wars is still churning out films and TV shows which share a timeline with the original trilogy, fans will always want to obtain an 'original'.

 

[Mini99]

Sell my TVC stuff now, hold on to the cash until the price of vintage R2-D2 MOCS drop

View attachment 180676

I've just got into collecting the VC line as no Vintage is coming up for sale that I'm looking for, I suppose that happens after the length of time we've been collecting.
There are a few VC above that I'm very interested in, so if they do come up for sale please drop me a message.

 

[Mini99]

Quality vintage will always be sort after and sell well.
But there is certainly a slow down in the madness that was buying Star Wars on FB over the last few years, not a lot is "claimed" in a few seconds anymore and fair amount of stuff goes un-sold which would have been unheard of a few years back.
We, the old time collectors are getting less in numbers than the new collectors that collect the VC and Black Series, hence the abundance of "new" toys and the increase in the prequels and sequels, a growing number of us are collecting all eras.
I certainly buy less Vintage these days, mainly due to less disposable income and very little coming up for sale that I would like to add to the collection, so I've moved into the VC line and am loving the abundance of interesting MOCs available.(I've always had a big interest on POTF2 as it' such an underrated line).
Yes the VC 1.0 cards can be expensive as can store exclusives of the 2.0 line, but again just like Vintage, patience is the key and bargains do come up on eBay now and again, brings back the fun to collecting.
I wanted to give the POTF2 line a mention too, yes 99% of cards are still sub £5.00 but if you start looking at foreign cards like South American, Korean and Italian, these can be so rarer that finding them is like finding rocking horse sh*t. Also the price of MISB ships have gone through the roof of late, if indeed you can find them for sale.
So just to wrap this ramble up, the collecting scene is alive and well, just changing and becoming younger as the prequel generation re discover Star Wars and have the disposable income to indulge in the nostalgia.
Long live Star Wars…

 

[_Lee_]

Agreed Mini.

I myself have recently thought about the POTF 2 line myself lately as its part those which got me back into collecting aswell as bendems. I love the cards right up until POTJ and I've never been able to get on with rhe AOTC and ROTS huge bubbles.

The good thing about star wars is that there is always something to collect.

 

[Wreck-It Ralph]

I don't see Vintage MOC's being a good long term investment as there are too many things to go wrong with them overtime like cracked bubbles, lifting bubbles and discoloured bubbles which reduce their value. If you are looking for an easier collectible investment with less things to go wrong then trading cards or comics are good choice. A Mickey Mantle card just sold for 12.6 million and an Amazing Fantasy 15 sold for 3.6 million in 2021. I realise these are at the top end of the collecting sphere but their sales will lift everything else. Investors are looking for investments that are as risk free as possible and trading cards and comics offer this whereas MOC's don't!

 

[Michael Sith]

I think yor right Edd, unfortunately it's about the passage of time, but the key for me is as always collect for yourself. It's not about the zeitgeist of 5he time it's about what floats your boat, great if their are like mined people and you are part of that, biut collect for you not for what others collect for. I'm a miserable old git and for me that's what it's all about, collect what you want for you, wether that has value ore not is irrelevant

 

[sith-smith]

I can't see vintage stuff maintaining its value in the long run. It's value largely lies in the connection our generation has with it and so we're prepared to pay to own. When we pass on, our nostalgic connection will not, so unless a later generation can find a powerful enough extrinsic value in it, its value can't possibly stay as high.

They are churning out so much stuff and a lot of it is really cool. That will also distract younger/future generations from the old stuff, which, though it means a lot to us, is not really going to look so great in comparison.

 

[monkey_roo]

I'd like to think that vintage stuff does hold its value - but rather than increase I think it will just flatten out and stay roughly where it is now - maybe dip a bit, but not a wholesale crash. The collecting market will shrink (as we all get older ) and only a small number of younger collectors will pick up the Kenner stuff as they don't connect to it like we do - But I think those that really go down the rabbit hole will buy vintage items, but that is not going to be a big number, but a 'true' collector might want to get every incarnation of whatever item/figure out there - imagine doing that for AT-AT's - having one of everyone ever made 1980 through to today - pretty cool. or having an R2 focus but not having Kenner figures in there - wouldn't be complete and a collector no matter what age does tend to have a completist mentality - I swear that is actually factored into Hasbro's business model...

Price wise I think the swing is already here. I have just completed a carded run of POTF2 and POTJ and while the figures remain mostly low cost (Although some POTJ is going up and the odd POTF2 is up as well) the vehicles are now on a par with Kenner - try finding a Boxed POTJ B-Wing at a good price - I can buy a Kenner one for less now.

Likewise a lot of TVC stuff is stupid money - doesn't help that a standard figure costs c£15 to start with and vehicles like the upcoming N1 are c£140 RRP - this means the items come with an inflated value that collectors just accept and maintain. Look at the Razorcrest - what does that go for now - silly money.

Over the last six month I can firmly say POTF, POTJ and EP1 stuff has gone up in price - not massive overall, but it is increasing and I think that is due to the fact that kids from the 00's are now collecting their childhood stuff - selected items from all the Saga, or ROTS or 30th Birthday lines have always carried high prices and all the damn exclusives Hasbro pumped out from that period likewise - those great multi-figure boxsets (Bounty Hunters, Imperial Briefing, Troopers etc.).

But yes, us old dinosaurs will slowly become extinct, the overall trade in Kenner stuff will slow - but good quality items will still hold value - Toys from the 90's and 00's will increase as their market grows. Stuff from today is already so stupidly expensive so I think they will all hover around RRP for a while yet. It remains to be seen if any of the Disney Sequel era stuff becomes widely collectable in the future - there is a lot of it and not a great deal of love for the films, but who knows. Oddly I think smaller lines like Rebels will go up - they were limited and unique (and very nice) and Clone Wars stuff likewise.

But collecting is alive and well and Star Wars is firmly part of that.

 

[toyboy73]

Great topic. From what I have heard and read, it seems that there are two very different schools of thought as to where Star Wars collecting will go in the future. Some seem to think vintage will die off as collectors move on, pass on, or otherwise leave the hobby, while others think that the new films and media will continue to generate interest in all things Star Wars, including vintage. This topic is one of frequent discussion with some old-timer collectors that I see at the Chicago Toy Show (aka Kane County Show) which I attend. I agree about the toys of past generations no longer being wanted now…at this show, there used to be many dealers selling cap guns, western toys, and pressed steel ; they are fewer and fewer every year. Most of the collectors of toys from the 1950's and before are unquestionably moving on, in one way or another. In recent years, many toy lines from the 1990's have been hot, as the kids of those generations grow up and have disposable income. I guess only time will tell if vintage Star Wars follows this same pattern, or holds its own.

My personal interests have certainly shifted a number of times over the years, and now as I'm moving in to another demographic (50+). I'm currently in the process of selling the last of my "Modern" collection. As I have gotten more mature, the desire to have more "stuff" has diminished, and I decided to focus on where the nostalgia truly is for myself, which is Kenner vintage. The modern lines do unquestionably have some cool items in them, but space, time, and financial resources dictated a change for me.

My personal opinion on the current state of the hobby: the divisiveness within fandom and issues with Hasbro (cost, availability, quality, saturation) have taken a toll on Modern collecting, while Vintage continues to do well. As a small time reseller, most vintage items that I come across are pretty easy to pass on, especially weapons, parts, and MOC figures. Vintage Collection is hot, while the 5POA and ST lines are mostly dead, and Black Series seems to be in a slump. OT characters still seem to do the best (older fans with more disposable income perhaps?) while other lines all have highlights based on what's popular in the media at the time. I agree with what others have said in that there has been somewhat of a resurgence in POTF2 era items; many were almost unsellable for years but now seem to be doing better, especially the vehicles. Another factor looming over all collector markets is the global economy, which, depending on what one reads, may be having some issues, with possibly more ahead.

 

[edd_jedi]

I wonder if POTF2 vehicles have become popular because most of them are made from the original line moulds but with better paint jobs?

 

[lejackal]

I wonder if POTF2 vehicles have become popular because most of them are made from the original line moulds but with better paint jobs?

I'd say so- better paint and better electronics.

 

[db94]

Absolutely loved buying them for our daughter. The original moulds made them cool for me and the better paint apps and lights and sounds were great for her (and me )

 

[Mini99]

I wonder if POTF2 vehicles have become popular because most of them are made from the original line moulds but with better paint jobs?

I also think that the vehicles didn't sell that well compared to how the figures sold back in the 90/00s.
So again the old adage of a smaller amount circulating in the secondary market.

 

[spoons]

I was looking through my CE photos Edd and thought exactly the same - mostly pics of droids from prequels, sequels and TV series. I'm not even sure I saw a Darth Vader cosplayer

We are definitely in a new era of SW, but that's no bad thing. Keeps it fresh for generations to come.

 

[sith-smith]

Think how much the star wars scene has changed since the first Celebration Europe in 2007. Back then there were just 6 films and it wasn't owned by Disney.

The bulk of cosplay still seemed to be OT and love for the PT was still pretty limited.

But since then, there's been at least 7 (Possibly 9? - I've lost track a bit) series, plus 6 more movies (including the animated clone wars) - all of which have introduced new characters and new actors and there's a lot more to come. Disney is very much forward thinking and looking for this to be a long term investment with the need to introduce new people to the franchise and to keep it fresh.


I found most of CE quite boring, but my SW focus is quite narrow. So I just took from the 4 days what I wanted and wasn't concerned about the rest. To be fair, that was the same in 2007, 13 and 16. Though the amount I'm interested in became less each show.

I just remind myself that Star Wars isn't mine, wasn't meant for just me - it's for everyone and anyone. Star Wars is much bigger than it was in 2007. That's no bad thing. There's a lot there - so you can take what you want and don't worry about the rest.

But in the meantime I'll just sit in the corner of the room shaking my fist, saying 'it's not as good as the old days'

 

[lejackal]

Think how much the star wars scene has changed since the first Celebration Europe in 2007. Back then there were just 6 films and it wasn't owned by Disney.

The bulk of cosplay still seemed to be OT and love for the PT was still pretty limited.

But since then, there's been at least 7 (Possibly 9? - I've lost track a bit) series, plus 6 more movies (including the animated clone wars) - all of which have introduced new characters and new actors and there's a lot more to come. Disney is very much forward thinking and looking for this to be a long term investment with the need to introduce new people to the franchise and to keep it fresh.


I found most of CE quite boring, but my SW focus is quite narrow. So I just took from the 4 days what I wanted and wasn't concerned about the rest. To be fair, that was the same in 2007, 13 and 16. Though the amount I'm interested in became less each show.

I just remind myself that Star Wars isn't mine, wasn't meant for just me - it's for everyone and anyone. Star Wars is much bigger than it was in 2007. That's no bad thing. There's a lot there - so you can take what you want and don't worry about the rest.

But in the meantime I'll just sit in the corner of the room shaking my fist, saying 'it's not as good as the old days'

"My" Star Wars vs "The" Star Wars is perhaps the biggest thing to accept

 

[sith-smith]

This is true. I think it's one reason why so many struggle with any new film series outside of the OT. They have in their mind how it should be and there's no way that something could be produced that would meet everything people have been imagining, often since 1983 and the end of the OT era!

Possibly the most interesting comment I've heard recently was at the end of the 1977 making of Star Wars documentary.

C3P0 speaking to R2 D2...

'where will it all end? Perhaps R2, it will never end!'

Who knew C3P0 could see into the future?

 

[maxf]

"My" Star Wars vs "The" Star Wars is perhaps the biggest thing to accept

That was my biggest takeaway from celebration - I lined up with thousands of people and the vast majority (I assume - from overheard conversations, costumes, t-shirts, age etc etc) were not there primarily for the OT, and even less so for vintage toys. We're a very small, niche part of Star Wars.

 

[Cazza]

That was my biggest takeaway from celebration - I lined up with thousands of people and the vast majority (I assume - from overheard conversations, costumes, t-shirts, age etc etc) were not there primarily for the OT, and even less so for vintage toys. We're a very small, niche part of Star Wars.

Yep, I felt the same, but still felt part of it all, as an old-timer.

 

[sith-smith]

Vintage toys do not generate any money for Disney, so we're never going to be a focus

I kind of see Star Wars and my collecting as two distinct things. I've fully embraced all the new stuff - don't like it all equally, but in general I love that there's loads of new content and enjoy watching it all - live action/cartoons/films/tv series. Consequently I still feel a part of things as I understand a lot of the references/characters etc. The Ashoka trailer is a good example - it relates to things from the OT, the continuation of the SW story in the early 90's (Thrawn Trilogy) and a lot of the new stuff Clone wars/rebels etc. So that makes me still feel a part of everything. That said the vast majority modern collecting has little interest to me, even modern versions of the OT.

Collecting vintage has little to do with Star Wars (as in the ever expanding universe of films and TV) While I appreciate that technically we wouldn't have had the toys as kids without there first being the films, I don't collect vintage because of my love of the films - if it was then I'd collect anything that relates to the OT, modern lines as well. I collect vintage because of the role it played in my life for a significant part of my childhood and the usual nostalgia etc. it gives me. So that certainly makes me feel like an old timer - but luckily at the moment there are still plenty of events that cater for us.

So ultimately I think I can get the best of both worlds. As for how long that continues...who knows!

 

[edd_jedi]

Yes I felt the same in the queue - looking at the thousands people around me I didn't feel there was much in common, wheras at an event like Farthest From you know everyone in the room has a lot of the same interests.

 

[Christian]

Star Wars in every aspect is a growing brand and attracting new followers with every episode streamed or online mention or media headline.

With regards to collecting there are IMHO many many different segments but from what i can tell and have experienced there are two main timelines: The original toys/merch (77-85) for the 40+ year olds and then there's TVC/Black Series & Lego for the under 40's. (Of course there's some cross over between the two but I am speaking in generalisations for the sake of this thread). The bottom line is that Disney/Hasbro doesn't make anything out of the former but is investing massively in the later group... and it's paying dividends. SWCE was swamped with 'younger' peeps desperate for new releases or spending a fortune to meet their on screen heroes - it was a crazy sight to behold. Numerous TV series coupled with another 3 slated movies (and no doubt future spin offs) will just keep the mega-cash cow shitting out billions in revenue.
For those of us who cherish our childhood toys and collect the true vintage line - no matter what anyone says nowadays about 'I collect for the love it', which may well be true in individual isolated cases, if you are dumping 100's if not 1000's on a collectible - it is an investment. May be not the wisest but at least it's a damn sight more enjoyable that looking at a market screen with red and green little arrows dictating which supermarket you'll shop at come 2035 onwards! Now for me the real question is whether or not a significant proportion of the younger generation will be drawn into true vintage collecting/investing as if that happens then sit tight, hold on to every piece you have because they will only increase in value due to simple economics. (Edd - I know I know mate you've been saying there'll be a downturn for the last 20 years but it ain't going to happen!)
In summary, there is nothing like the iconic pop culture standing of Star Wars and in selling LFL to Disney in 2012, Lucas did exactly what he wanted to achive and make 'Star Wars Forever'. Can you imagine a world without it?

 

[edd_jedi]

I agree with you for the short to medium term @Christian, it's not going anywhere for at least 20-30 years because as you say most vintage collectors are 40-50 now. But the question is when we all start to die off, will people continue to invest in it like they do old paintings, or will it die a death like Elvis or Michael Jackson memorabilia, or the old war toys i mentioned earlier. Nobody knows yet, as one of the younger vintage colletors myself it will be interesting to see!

 

[Starrider]

I think the value of vintage will never go down substantially. All that will happen when the first generation of Star Wars collectors begin to die off and increasing amounts of stuff starts to enter the market is that it will be quickly bought up by those like me if there was a significant drop (presuming I'm not one of the first wave to go) who have gaps to plug it but cant justify the sky high prices. This temporary slump in values would soon start to climb again once the surviving collectors had hoovered up all the bargains on offer. I would also argue the vintage line will always be of historical interest. Values on early Marvel and DC comics remain high even though the generation that collected them has long since shuffled off this mortal coil. The same with antiques, 100+ year old items still have an appeal to a small minority who have no connection to the period in question. I would say in general new collectors are always going to make a beeline for the newer stuff, but again there will be a smaller less shallow section who will still have interest in vintage items. As Star Wars approaches 50 years old, vintage sales may no longer rely purely on nostalgia, but on their historical significance and their connection to the very beginning of the whole Star Wars phenomenon.

 

[Wreck-It Ralph]

The biggest threat to Vintage Collecting is deterioration in the pieces. If you take a MOC then there are more things to go wrong with it than other collecting genre's like comics or trading cards, take vintage POTF cards many have been stored in dark dry conditions and still the bubbles have become yellow and brittle and in some cases have cracked, this can have a major impact on demand and thereby price. I don't see that same level of deterioration in comics or trading cards if stored in the right conditions. Other areas of collecting like cars are less affected as if a car is stored inappropriately it can be restored to its original state for a cost, not possible with MOC, if a bubble detaches and it is glued back down it is a reseal which is worth significantly less. The Demand for Vintage and thereby price will not just come down to desirability but more their robustness over time as most of us don't like losing money which is what happens when a bubble yellows, cracks or starts to lift.