I can't help but think the vintage market will relax in time. Star Wars will always be culturally relevant in our lifetimes. People often underestimate the love for the prequel era by those who grew up with it. They'll still be fans when the vintage era collectors are pushing up daisies.
The Disney era of Star Wars has done a lot if not everything to revive the vintage collecting scene beyond those dedicated few who stuck with with it from the late 80s/early 90s till now. I'm one of those whose interest was reignited by TFA release. I was trawling ebay and digging out my vintage from my folks house within weeks of seeing it in the cinema.
We're living through some fairly tumultuous times as far as fandom goes. I do think the Disney films have done as much to reignite the passion in Star Wars, of those of us who were fans/collectors since before the Special Editions and Prequels, or "The Dark Times" as they're often referred to, as they have to warn fans off.
Much like the new Retro line from Hasbro has revealed the wide spectrum of feelings and opinions on how and if the vintage era is and should be touched upon by future products. The recent Helix reissues were overwhelmingly welcomed it seems by vintage era collectors. The collector base for those is obviously smaller than that of the 3.75" toy line, but it's interesting to see how different the reactions were.
Personally I take the view that a constant bombardment of Star Wars year after year (new films and toys) isn't a good thing in the long term. 'Too much of a good thing' comes to mind and I feel that things can become watered down and maybe even cheapened. I think the slow down announced by Bob Iger after 'Solo' was a good idea. Quality, not quantity will sustain the fandom for many more years to come.
In regards to how this may all affect vintage collecting...well, in the short term (the next 5-6 years) that does depend on how Disney continue play with their investment. Episode 9, or rather how it is received, will give us a better idea of the future of collecting. But either way I think a lot of those who were drawn back into collecting by the release of new films will inevitably loose interest just like they did before. Prices will fall somewhat, not crash by any means. And again, I think that might be a good thing.
There are those who are in this for an investment and love to boast about what they have and how much they spent, but those will be the first to go and sell up. As prices start to settle a little it will make collecting a little more relaxed for those that remain. More of a buyers market, in some areas anyway. High end, preproduction etc will always demand a premium though. Personally I hope prices do drop as I hope and feel like I will be collecting for some time to come this time round.
There's a lot I miss about how collecting felt back in the 90s. Not because of the cheaper prices, but because there was more of a hunt to find this stuff...car boot sales, charity shops would often yield finds on a regular basis. It somehow felt more honest, if that makes any sense. There's a lot to be said for the current vintage scene however; I am far more involved in the social aspect than I ever was back in the day and have made some good collecting friendships (in most part thanks to this forum), there's far more knowledge and things to educate ourselves with with the likes of in-depth, specialist books on preproduction, foreign variants etc.
I'm not worried about the future of all this. There will always be a community of some sort if you want to get involved. There will always be a market for all this old plastic. But all markets grow and contract with time. Sometimes it's a healthy thing to allow a market to slow and adjust. And when it does, I'll be out there mopping up all the 12 backs for under 50 quid, waiting till Star Wars is bought again and the next round of films comes out so I can retire! :lol:
Chris