When will the bubble burst...?

Read all this... Once again.. The reason I have been quiet as of late.. Not giving up though. **** those guys. Long live our little piece of the web.

maxf said:

What is also very different lately (I started on Mocs again last March) is that prices are such that people are unwilling to sell stuff - bear with me here as it sounds stupid I know. I have a 'spare' figure which is pretty sought after - a few years ago I'd have sold it knowing I could rebuy if I wanted to - now I won't sell as I know I wouldn't be able to own it again if my focus moves. I know other people who are the same - if they have spares they will either only trade or will price them at 2017 levels (chance of a 2016 bubble pop aside).

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This ^^^

Precisely why I don't sell anything, having already been burned in the past selling off stuff and then wanting it back. Christ, all I want is a canopy for my grey x-wing! Not bloody paying today's prices for it though. Maybe 2017's prices will be better. Should have bought one 5 years ago :wink:

i enjoy looking through ebay and finding hidden gems/bargain. not as many these days sadly but still enjoy the hunt

ive seen some prices on FB groups for loose beaters being an example and there ridiculous! i just want to price bash some of the morons but im not allowed. will the bubble burst - no - not for the forseeable future unfortunately. im glad most of my buying was 10 years ago when i had disposable income.

Pretty depressing thread. I reckon there's probably still bargains out there but it's never going to be like "the good old days". I completely missed them so it's just like being a kid, wishing you could get everything but being told "no! You'll have to save up!". There's a lot of obscene showing off and bragging on Facebook etc but that's just what society has become. Best to not get drawn into it. Stick with the forum and obtain what you can. Don't let it get you down!

I'm not sure people are actually showing off in the negative sense ...or maybe i'm just not on those groups. The way I see it is if you can afford prices now then good for you.

A few years back I bought a nice Blue Snag on here for about £100. I thought that was extravagant but the price was about right for the time and it was an item I had always dreamed of owning so was worth it. By now that price will have risen. I personally couldn't afford it again but someone else could (it's not for sale by the way :wink: ).

The shame with all this is long time collectors being priced out. Maybe one way of looking at it is that some vintage lines were prohibitively expensive a long, long time ago. Boxed MOTU and Transformers have never really been within my range. Not in the last ten years anyway :?

They are showing off. I was told by one of these newer collectors that this is what collecting is about. You buy.. Then showoff.. Then repeat Daily. He went as far as to tell me that if i do not like prices.. I just need to step aside and let the big boys in. I have no use for this type of mentality nor do l care for the condescending approach.

and you aren't having to compensate for something

I am just thankful this place has remained the same.

Thought I would add my 2p worth regards the original question.

IMHO the bubble has to burst. The thing we don't know is how much it will burst.

The rate at which prices are increasing is steep. Look at the collectors market as an economy. This economy is increasing rapidly. It has to be fed by new money coming into the hobby. If the same collectors had been passing the same items around for years, that group would have had a finite amount of money to buy and sell from each other. This would have capped the maximum price of any item.

At the moment we seem to have some very cash rich collectors coming into the hobby (now wether this is money they have or money they have borrowed, as I do wonder in some cases), as well as lots of new collectors, off the back of the disney purchase and new films. So lots of new collectors with varying amounts of spare cash looking to indulge in their new hobby. The market starts moving quickly and value jumps.

But at some point this money is going to run out. How many new collectors come in at 100MPH and then come to a standstill when they have shot their load so to speak. Eventually there has to be a tipping point. Once this new money coming into the economy slows and runs out the market will start to slow down and eventually fall.

The question is, how far. I can't see prices falling to 5 or even 3 years ago, as there are a lot of new collectors who will still like to maintain their new collections, but something will give. I feel we are already starting to see it with Palitoy 12 and 30 backs. Once prized and valuable, now seemingly abundant to vectis, and in some examples selling for thousands cheaper from one month to the next. So the market will settle, to an extent. We will see to what extent.

I feel I have probably overpaid for things in the past. Any money I spend on my collection is dead money. Once I buy an item it has no value to me. It is an item I wanted to own and now I do. I get to enjoy it and don't worry to much about the price after that. If I can afford it thats good enough for me. I enjoy posting my items in the latest acquisitions thread here, just as I like seeing other peoples collections progress. I don't post anything on Facebook, save for some pictures of my collection on Joes trilogo group. The reason I posted the pictures there was because the conversation on the group, as well as the membership very much felt like a group of collectors discussing collecting. It was the only group I felt comfortable posting the pictures.

Anyway, if I'm right then thats great for everyone. If I'm not, I will continue looking for the bits I want at prices I feel I can afford and are fair. If I can't add another item to my collection then I will just enjoy what I have been fortunate enough to pick up.

A very interesting topic really, but I keep seeing so many people mention about "back in the day".

"Back in the Day" if it was so cheap then why didnt you all buy the items you want then..?, simple...because its the same as now, each individuals budget wouldnt rise to the prices 10,20 or even 30 years ago.

As someone who has been in the collecting industry for so long, we need big and new buyers, otherwise the market collapses, for every new customer who comes into any collecting field, they bring in new money, whether borrowed or their own.

For hardcore long term collectors who are searching for rare items, its sad to see that their budget could accomodate prices from 5 years ago and with all the hype, now the item has trebled and knocked them back again.....but this is collecting..! The chase and the dream keeps the buzz alive..!

If every Star Wars item was selling at £1, there would be no auction houses, dealers, forums, facebook pages and no hype at all.

As for the show offs, well this is life, in some cases, one up man ship and look what Ive got stems back to the playground, but in some cases someone can buy an item for 50k and just be pleased to have got it, so they like to talk about it, in their eyes they are not showing off they are just happy to have bought such a rare item and are sharing their views with other collectors.

Finally, a lot of people dont realise that many of these collectors spending huge amounts of cash are often short term collectors, they love the buzz and the chase, but at the same time theres many of them who dont care if they spend 500k over 2 years and then sell it all for 200k two years later, its a bit of fun to some of them, then another comes along, then more and more, its the way it is and will always be.

tiefighterboy said:

They are showing off. I was told by one of these newer collectors that this is what collecting is about. You buy.. Then showoff.. Then repeat Daily. He went as far as to tell me that if i do not like prices.. I just need to step aside and let the big boys in. I have no use for this type of mentality nor do l care for the condescending approach.

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HAHAHAHA!! Let the big boys in??? WTF??

Please name the absolute melt who said that because quite frankly i would love to know how he came to that conclusion.

_Lee_ said:

tiefighterboy said:

They are showing off. I was told by one of these newer collectors that this is what collecting is about. You buy.. Then showoff.. Then repeat Daily. He went as far as to tell me that if i do not like prices.. I just need to step aside and let the big boys in. I have no use for this type of mentality nor do l care for the condescending approach.

Click to expand...

HAHAHAHA!! Let the big boys in??? WTF??

Please name the absolute melt who said that because quite frankly i would love to know how he came to that conclusion.

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Who was that? I'd like to know who I can sell some stuff to at exorbitant prices with a clear conscience

maxf said:

_Lee_ said:

tiefighterboy said:

They are showing off. I was told by one of these newer collectors that this is what collecting is about. You buy.. Then showoff.. Then repeat Daily. He went as far as to tell me that if i do not like prices.. I just need to step aside and let the big boys in. I have no use for this type of mentality nor do l care for the condescending approach.

Click to expand...

HAHAHAHA!! Let the big boys in??? WTF??

Please name the absolute melt who said that because quite frankly i would love to know how he came to that conclusion.

Click to expand...

Who was that? I'd like to know who I can sell some stuff to at exorbitant prices with a clear conscience

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I always sell with a clear conscience...!

80s_collector said:

A very interesting topic really, but I keep seeing so many people mention about "back in the day".

"Back in the Day" if it was so cheap then why didnt you all buy the items you want then..?, simple...because its the same as now, each individuals budget wouldnt rise to the prices 10,20 or even 30 years ago.

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Very true. I know when I was doing fairs as a student in the mid 90s that MOCs were so expensive (to me) that I barely looked at them. It's all comparative.

80s_collector said:

As someone who has been in the collecting industry for so long, we need big and new buyers, otherwise the market collapses, for every new customer who comes into any collecting field, they bring in new money, whether borrowed or their own...

...If every Star Wars item was selling at £1, there would be no auction houses, dealers, forums, facebook pages and no hype at all.

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Personally, I couldn't care less if the market collapsed. There would be no fewer toys about but they would be cheap. There would be no fewer auction houses around they would just concentrate on other specialist items with the occasional cheap SW lot.

80s_collector said:

As for the show offs, well this is life, in some cases, one up man ship and look what Ive got stems back to the playground, but in some cases someone can buy an item for 50k and just be pleased to have got it, so they like to talk about it, in their eyes they are not showing off they are just happy to have bought such a rare item and are sharing their views with other collectors.

Finally, a lot of people dont realise that many of these collectors spending huge amounts of cash are often short term collectors, they love the buzz and the chase, but at the same time theres many of them who dont care if they spend 500k over 2 years and then sell it all for 200k two years later, its a bit of fun to some of them, then another comes along, then more and more, its the way it is and will always be.

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It doesn't make them any the less irritating, though! The difference between now and 20 years ago is the attention seeking losers who needed validation only got it from anyone in earshot. Now they have the megaphone that is the internet.

I think what annoys most of us is that the supply hasn't changed in 20+ years, in fact if anything there are more in circulation now than there were 10 years ago because of all the huge Beech's etc finds. Yet despite this, prices have gone up insanely.

A couple of examples - A VCJ. I've been collecting since 1994, and between '94 and 2010 he was a £75-100 figure, give or take. In fact I was offered a carded one for £750 in 2011. And he was DEFINITELY harder to find pre-internet. Yet now, despite the thousands of them out there, they are creeping up towards a grand for a loose one. Why!? I get supply and demand, but there is no shortage of them! The hundreds on eBay every year could just as well sell for £100 as £1000 if people weren't simply so willing to throw cash at them.

Second example, common loose figures. Again as long as I've been collecting, over 20 years, a loose main character like Luke Farmboy or Leia have been £7-15 figures. Yet as of 2015, people have decided these incredibly common figures are worth £40, £50, even £60. Again for no reason - there is no shortage of them.

So although I know the old "supply and demand" quote is thrown around a lot, I still don't buy it. Demand has grown sure, but so has supply. Just look on eBay, there is no shortage of any of these things. I just checked eBay completed listings, 10 VCJ's have sold already this year. Is it f*ck rare.

Agree 100%

80s_collector said:

A very interesting topic really, but I keep seeing so many people mention about "back in the day".

"Back in the Day" if it was so cheap then why didnt you all buy the items you want then..?, simple...because its the same as now, each individuals budget wouldnt rise to the prices 10,20 or even 30 years ago.

As someone who has been in the collecting industry for so long, we need big and new buyers, otherwise the market collapses, for every new customer who comes into any collecting field, they bring in new money, whether borrowed or their own.

For hardcore long term collectors who are searching for rare items, its sad to see that their budget could accomodate prices from 5 years ago and with all the hype, now the item has trebled and knocked them back again.....but this is collecting..! The chase and the dream keeps the buzz alive..!

If every Star Wars item was selling at £1, there would be no auction houses, dealers, forums, facebook pages and no hype at all.

As for the show offs, well this is life, in some cases, one up man ship and look what Ive got stems back to the playground, but in some cases someone can buy an item for 50k and just be pleased to have got it, so they like to talk about it, in their eyes they are not showing off they are just happy to have bought such a rare item and are sharing their views with other collectors.

Finally, a lot of people dont realise that many of these collectors spending huge amounts of cash are often short term collectors, they love the buzz and the chase, but at the same time theres many of them who dont care if they spend 500k over 2 years and then sell it all for 200k two years later, its a bit of fun to some of them, then another comes along, then more and more, its the way it is and will always be.

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edd_jedi said:

So although I know the old "supply and demand" quote is thrown around a lot, I still don't buy it. Demand has grown sure, but so has supply. Just look on eBay, there is no shortage of any of these things. I just checked eBay completed listings, 10 VCJ's have sold already this year. Is it f*ck rare.

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"supply and demand" is exactly what this is Edd. So 10 have sold this year - if you wanted to be anal you could look at the number of different bidders on those pieces and I would bet a lot of money that it is a lot more than 10 different users. So although not 'rare' they are in demand - just like a lot of harder to find items - they are more sought after than they were before. With more people after them a higher price is commanded because of this

Even if 20 VC Jawas turned up on eBay tomorrow then they would still go for higher prices than they used to because there are more people prepared to pay a premium for this item

I had some high end Luke MOCs available last year and sold them all within a matter of minutes at very high prices - I could have sold each one 4 or 5 times over if I'd had more - each at the same price

That's kind of what I'm trying to say though - what's increased is people's perceptions of worth, not the actual rarity, demand or worth. Luke 12 backs would have been in high demand 20 years ago too, but at £100 instead of £1000.

It seems the new collector mentality is "I want this right now, the last one sold for £100 so I'm going to offer £200."

My way of collecting is "I want one of these and the last one sold for £100, so I'll wait until one comes along for about £100."

Both of the above still work, I've proved that myself by putting together near-complete loose and carded runs in the last 18 months without paying stupid money for anything.

edd_jedi said:

That's kind of what I'm trying to say though - what's increased is people's perceptions of worth, not the actual rarity, demand or worth. Luke 12 backs would have been in high demand 20 years ago too, but at £100 instead of £1000.

It seems the new collector mentality is "I want this right now, the last one sold for £100 so I'm going to offer £200."

My way of collecting is "I want one of these and the last one sold for £100, so I'll wait until one comes along for about £100."

Both of the above still work, I've proved that myself by putting together near-complete loose and carded runs in the last 18 months without paying stupid money for anything.

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Very good points Edd, with all my experience buyers dont actually look at what one sold for before, they just offer and buy, but your very right in what you say about perceptions of worth, I totally agree with you on that one 100%, everyone has their own opinion on values I suppose.

Regarding your earlier post about the £1000 vcj, same amount about as ever before......but people rate that figure, as for the Luke Farmboys and the White Leia well that market has gone into a different and totally new zone nowadays, but I suppose to spend £100 on a white Leia is better value than spending it down the pub..

100% with you also on the "I want this right now" attitude. With mail order now, everyone expects it all within 24 hours, click of a mouse, pop your card details in...now where is it...?

Bit of a rant below...


I used to buy Puma and Adidas trainers from the 80's and 90's, unworn, tags still attached, with box, "deadstock" is the term used.
At that time, around 12-years ago, the only forum that mattered for trainers was Crooked Tongues. It was run by a good bunch of lads that were into the "hobby".
You'd get someone post up some rare and unseen Adidas trainers from the 70's made in West Germany and the whole forum would explode.
For example, I'd say that a lot of us here know the Adidas Gazelle (reissue), but how many know the original Gazelle?
Then there was all talk about "wow, I never knew it was released in that colourway" and someone would scan a vintage catalogue onto the forum.
It was great. And so on.
So much knowledge, just like here.

Then, in 2005, Adidas did its collaboration with artists on the 35th anniversary of the Superstar model.
All limited numbers.
As the months went on, some of the rarer models would appear on ebay for extortinate prices.
The forum had a "no-sell" policy but you'd get loads of resellers logging on trying to flog their stuff.
And the hype was in full-swing; A different crowd had entered the market place - those in it for either the money or the status.

With the success of Adidas collaborations, other collaborations became common. Puma got in on the act.
Nigo(Yes, the chap that recently had a big auction) of A Bathing Ape fame got in on it which helped his own brand.
Just as fast, "celebrities" were seen sporting these trainers.
Typically fakes flooded the market on Ebay.
The long-termers got a bit fed up with this as the mood had changed.
Eventually ASOS took over Crooked Tongues and the forum closed.


It's a bit of a rant, I know, but there are some similarities regardless of what one collects.
Have to accept we can't dictate in which direction the hobby will go.